Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2–3 ships as the most likely total Iran will successfully target by April 30 at 55.5%, reflecting the severe degradation of Iranian naval forces amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. U.S. and Israeli strikes since late February have sunk at least nine IRGC warships, killed the navy commander, and neutralized over 140 vessels, sharply limiting Tehran's capacity for further maritime assaults via missiles, drones, or speedboats. Early March saw around five confirmed hits damaging merchant tankers and causing casualties, but no major successes reported in the past week despite sporadic incidents like the April 1 damage to the Panama-flagged Aqua 1. Asymmetric threats persist, sustaining 26.2% odds for 10+ amid potential escalation or proxy coordination.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2–3 55%
10+ 19.4%
4–5 18%
6–7 13%
$36,025 交易量
$36,025 交易量
2026-04-30
2–3
55%
4–5
14%
6–7
13%
8–9
8%
10+
19%
2–3 55%
10+ 19.4%
4–5 18%
6–7 13%
$36,025 交易量
$36,025 交易量
2026-04-30
2–3
$3,806 交易量
55%
4–5
$169 交易量
14%
6–7
$2,175 交易量
13%
8–9
$4,889 交易量
8%
10+
$256 交易量
19%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2–3 ships as the most likely total Iran will successfully target by April 30 at 55.5%, reflecting the severe degradation of Iranian naval forces amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. U.S. and Israeli strikes since late February have sunk at least nine IRGC warships, killed the navy commander, and neutralized over 140 vessels, sharply limiting Tehran's capacity for further maritime assaults via missiles, drones, or speedboats. Early March saw around five confirmed hits damaging merchant tankers and causing casualties, but no major successes reported in the past week despite sporadic incidents like the April 1 damage to the Panama-flagged Aqua 1. Asymmetric threats persist, sustaining 26.2% odds for 10+ amid potential escalation or proxy coordination.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
交易量
$36,025结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2–3 ships as the most likely total Iran will successfully target by April 30 at 55.5%, reflecting the severe degradation of Iranian naval forces amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. U.S. and Israeli strikes since late February have sunk at least nine IRGC warships, killed the navy commander, and neutralized over 140 vessels, sharply limiting Tehran's capacity for further maritime assaults via missiles, drones, or speedboats. Early March saw around five confirmed hits damaging merchant tankers and causing casualties, but no major successes reported in the past week despite sporadic incidents like the April 1 damage to the Panama-flagged Aqua 1. Asymmetric threats persist, sustaining 26.2% odds for 10+ amid potential escalation or proxy coordination.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$36,025结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2–3 ships as the most likely total Iran will successfully target by April 30 at 55.5%, reflecting the severe degradation of Iranian naval forces amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. U.S. and Israeli strikes since late February have sunk at least nine IRGC warships, killed the navy commander, and neutralized over 140 vessels, sharply limiting Tehran's capacity for further maritime assaults via missiles, drones, or speedboats. Early March saw around five confirmed hits damaging merchant tankers and causing casualties, but no major successes reported in the past week despite sporadic incidents like the April 1 damage to the Panama-flagged Aqua 1. Asymmetric threats persist, sustaining 26.2% odds for 10+ amid potential escalation or proxy coordination.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题