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地缘政治·移民

2026年，特朗普将驱逐多少人？

Market icon
地缘政治·移民

2026年，特朗普将驱逐多少人？

Dec 31

Dec 31

30万到40万 35%

40万到50万 23%

20万到30万 21%

50万到60万 10%

Polymarket

$19,160 交易量

30万到40万 35%

40万到50万 23%

20万到30万 21%

50万到60万 10%

Polymarket

$19,160 交易量

少于20万

$0 交易量

9%

20万到30万

$3,580 交易量

21%

30万到40万

$1,795 交易量

35%

40万到50万

$0 交易量

23%

50万到60万

$2,395 交易量

10%

60万-70万

$0 交易量

4%

70-80万

$0 交易量

1%

80万到90万

$8,037 交易量

4%

90万-100万人

$0 交易量

1%

>100万

$3,353 交易量

3%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 300-400k deportations in 2026 at 34.5%, with 400-500k (23%) and 200-300k (21.5%) close behind, signaling uncertainty over ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations scaling amid logistical constraints. Recent DHS leadership shakeups announced in mid-March and toned-down "mass deportation" rhetoric following February incidents in Minneapolis have dampened higher-end expectations, despite arrests surpassing 1,100 daily early in the year and detention nearing 70,000. Opaque reporting—administration touts 675,000 cumulative removals since January 2025 without monthly 2026 breakdowns—fuels skepticism, echoing TRAC data projecting sub-500k annually at prior paces. Key differentiators hinge on sustained hiring (12,000 new agents) versus judicial blocks like the March 17 MS-13 release; consolidation could follow DHS secretary confirmation hearings, ICE funding votes, or clarified statistics.

Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 300-400k deportations in 2026 at 34.5%, with 400-500k (23%) and 200-300k (21.5%) close behind, signaling uncertainty over ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations scaling amid logistical constraints. Recent DHS leadership shakeups announced in mid-March and toned-down "mass deportation" rhetoric following February incidents in Minneapolis have dampened higher-end expectations, despite arrests surpassing 1,100 daily early in the year and detention nearing 70,000. Opaque reporting—administration touts 675,000 cumulative removals since January 2025 without monthly 2026 breakdowns—fuels skepticism, echoing TRAC data projecting sub-500k annually at prior paces. Key differentiators hinge on sustained hiring (12,000 new agents) versus judicial blocks like the March 17 MS-13 release; consolidation could follow DHS secretary confirmation hearings, ICE funding votes, or clarified statistics.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 300-400k deportations in 2026 at 34.5%, with 400-500k (23%) and 200-300k (21.5%) close behind, signaling uncertainty over ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations scaling amid logistical constraints. Recent DHS leadership shakeups announced in mid-March and toned-down "mass deportation" rhetoric following February incidents in Minneapolis have dampened higher-end expectations, despite arrests surpassing 1,100 daily early in the year and detention nearing 70,000. Opaque reporting—administration touts 675,000 cumulative removals since January 2025 without monthly 2026 breakdowns—fuels skepticism, echoing TRAC data projecting sub-500k annually at prior paces. Key differentiators hinge on sustained hiring (12,000 new agents) versus judicial blocks like the March 17 MS-13 release; consolidation could follow DHS secretary confirmation hearings, ICE funding votes, or clarified statistics.

Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 300-400k deportations in 2026 at 34.5%, with 400-500k (23%) and 200-300k (21.5%) close behind, signaling uncertainty over ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations scaling amid logistical constraints. Recent DHS leadership shakeups announced in mid-March and toned-down "mass deportation" rhetoric following February incidents in Minneapolis have dampened higher-end expectations, despite arrests surpassing 1,100 daily early in the year and detention nearing 70,000. Opaque reporting—administration touts 675,000 cumulative removals since January 2025 without monthly 2026 breakdowns—fuels skepticism, echoing TRAC data projecting sub-500k annually at prior paces. Key differentiators hinge on sustained hiring (12,000 new agents) versus judicial blocks like the March 17 MS-13 release; consolidation could follow DHS secretary confirmation hearings, ICE funding votes, or clarified statistics.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年，特朗普将驱逐多少人？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 10 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"30万到40万"，概率为 35%，其次是"40万到50万"，概率为 23%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 35¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 35%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年，特朗普将驱逐多少人？"已产生 $19.2K 的总交易量（自Nov 5, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年，特朗普将驱逐多少人？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 10 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年，特朗普将驱逐多少人？"的当前领先者是"30万到40万"，概率为 35%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 35%。紧随其后的结果是"40万到50万"，概率为 23%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年，特朗普将驱逐多少人？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。