Recent California primary polls from mid-March, including POLITICO and LA Times surveys, show Gavin Newsom opening a commanding lead over Kamala Harris among state Democrats, bolstering his trader consensus at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination amid a wide-open field. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.1% on progressive buzz and fundraising potential, while Jon Ossoff's 5.7% reflects his viral anti-Trump rhetoric and Georgia battleground win. Key differentiators include Newsom's executive experience and national anti-Trump profile versus AOC's youth and grassroots energy, and Ossoff's swing-state appeal. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, invisible primary fundraising, and early Iowa-New Hampshire polling, with discrepancies noted against New Hampshire surveys favoring Pete Buttigieg.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.1%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.7%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.3%
$935,913,433 交易量
$935,913,433 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
马克·凯利
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.1%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.7%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.3%
$935,913,433 交易量
$935,913,433 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
马克·凯利
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Recent California primary polls from mid-March, including POLITICO and LA Times surveys, show Gavin Newsom opening a commanding lead over Kamala Harris among state Democrats, bolstering his trader consensus at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination amid a wide-open field. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.1% on progressive buzz and fundraising potential, while Jon Ossoff's 5.7% reflects his viral anti-Trump rhetoric and Georgia battleground win. Key differentiators include Newsom's executive experience and national anti-Trump profile versus AOC's youth and grassroots energy, and Ossoff's swing-state appeal. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, invisible primary fundraising, and early Iowa-New Hampshire polling, with discrepancies noted against New Hampshire surveys favoring Pete Buttigieg.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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