Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 63% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting seat projections from models like 338Canada showing PQ securing around 63 seats despite a tight popular vote race averaging 31% PQ versus 29% PLQ as of early March 2026. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 12-14% support and zero projected seats following Premier François Legault's January resignation amid dismal approval ratings, eroding its incumbent advantage. PLQ's surge to 26% odds stems from new leader Charles Milliard's February acclaim and recent Léger polls tying PQ at 30-31%, bolstered by low sovereignty support hurting PQ but not enough to overcome first-past-the-post dynamics favoring PQ's francophone strongholds. The election must occur by October 5, with CAQ's leadership race a potential wildcard.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于魁人党 63%
魁北克自由党 26%
魁人党 13%
魁北克保守党 <1%
$297,044 交易量
$297,044 交易量
Oct 5, 2026
魁人党
63%
魁北克自由党
26%
魁人党
13%
魁北克保守党
1%
魁北克绿党
<1%
魁团
<1%
魁人党 63%
魁北克自由党 26%
魁人党 13%
魁北克保守党 <1%
$297,044 交易量
$297,044 交易量
Oct 5, 2026
魁人党
$33,477 交易量
63%
魁北克自由党
$31,505 交易量
26%
魁人党
$33,196 交易量
13%
魁北克保守党
$113,598 交易量
1%
魁北克绿党
$43,767 交易量
<1%
魁团
$41,501 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 63% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting seat projections from models like 338Canada showing PQ securing around 63 seats despite a tight popular vote race averaging 31% PQ versus 29% PLQ as of early March 2026. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 12-14% support and zero projected seats following Premier François Legault's January resignation amid dismal approval ratings, eroding its incumbent advantage. PLQ's surge to 26% odds stems from new leader Charles Milliard's February acclaim and recent Léger polls tying PQ at 30-31%, bolstered by low sovereignty support hurting PQ but not enough to overcome first-past-the-post dynamics favoring PQ's francophone strongholds. The election must occur by October 5, with CAQ's leadership race a potential wildcard.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$297,044结束日期
Oct 5, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 63% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting seat projections from models like 338Canada showing PQ securing around 63 seats despite a tight popular vote race averaging 31% PQ versus 29% PLQ as of early March 2026. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 12-14% support and zero projected seats following Premier François Legault's January resignation amid dismal approval ratings, eroding its incumbent advantage. PLQ's surge to 26% odds stems from new leader Charles Milliard's February acclaim and recent Léger polls tying PQ at 30-31%, bolstered by low sovereignty support hurting PQ but not enough to overcome first-past-the-post dynamics favoring PQ's francophone strongholds. The election must occur by October 5, with CAQ's leadership race a potential wildcard.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$297,044结束日期
Oct 5, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 63% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting seat projections from models like 338Canada showing PQ securing around 63 seats despite a tight popular vote race averaging 31% PQ versus 29% PLQ as of early March 2026. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 12-14% support and zero projected seats following Premier François Legault's January resignation amid dismal approval ratings, eroding its incumbent advantage. PLQ's surge to 26% odds stems from new leader Charles Milliard's February acclaim and recent Léger polls tying PQ at 30-31%, bolstered by low sovereignty support hurting PQ but not enough to overcome first-past-the-post dynamics favoring PQ's francophone strongholds. The election must occur by October 5, with CAQ's leadership race a potential wildcard.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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