Recent polling in Berlin shows AfD, CDU, and Grüne clustered closely behind the leading parties ahead of the September 20 state election, reflecting AfD's first-time topping of a capital survey and broader national gains for the party amid dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition. The tight implied probabilities for third place stem from AfD's momentum on immigration and economic issues, CDU's incumbency advantage despite local governance critiques, and Grüne's established urban base, with limited recent shifts in voter intentions. A late surge in turnout among specific blocs or campaign events in the final weeks could separate the contenders before votes are counted.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于德国选择党 32%
基民盟 31%
格林党 29%
Linke 8%
$21,488 交易量
$21,488 交易量
2026-09-20
德国选择党
32%
基民盟
31%
格林党
29%
Linke
8%
社民党
1%
自由民主党
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
德国选择党 32%
基民盟 31%
格林党 29%
Linke 8%
$21,488 交易量
$21,488 交易量
2026-09-20
德国选择党
$5,074 交易量
32%
基民盟
$5,188 交易量
31%
格林党
$3,453 交易量
29%
Linke
$4,520 交易量
8%
社民党
$1,246 交易量
1%
自由民主党
$674 交易量
<1%
FW
$582 交易量
<1%
BSW
$750 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling in Berlin shows AfD, CDU, and Grüne clustered closely behind the leading parties ahead of the September 20 state election, reflecting AfD's first-time topping of a capital survey and broader national gains for the party amid dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition. The tight implied probabilities for third place stem from AfD's momentum on immigration and economic issues, CDU's incumbency advantage despite local governance critiques, and Grüne's established urban base, with limited recent shifts in voter intentions. A late surge in turnout among specific blocs or campaign events in the final weeks could separate the contenders before votes are counted.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
交易量
$21,488结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling in Berlin shows AfD, CDU, and Grüne clustered closely behind the leading parties ahead of the September 20 state election, reflecting AfD's first-time topping of a capital survey and broader national gains for the party amid dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition. The tight implied probabilities for third place stem from AfD's momentum on immigration and economic issues, CDU's incumbency advantage despite local governance critiques, and Grüne's established urban base, with limited recent shifts in voter intentions. A late surge in turnout among specific blocs or campaign events in the final weeks could separate the contenders before votes are counted.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$21,488结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Berlin shows AfD, CDU, and Grüne clustered closely behind the leading parties ahead of the September 20 state election, reflecting AfD's first-time topping of a capital survey and broader national gains for the party amid dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition. The tight implied probabilities for third place stem from AfD's momentum on immigration and economic issues, CDU's incumbency advantage despite local governance critiques, and Grüne's established urban base, with limited recent shifts in voter intentions. A late surge in turnout among specific blocs or campaign events in the final weeks could separate the contenders before votes are counted.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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