Trader consensus on Polymarket prices California Governor Gavin Newsom as the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24% implied probability, buoyed by his executive experience, national fundraising strength, and high-profile clashes with Trump administration policies following the 2024 election loss. Recent polls show a fragmented field, with a late March JL Partners survey giving former Vice President Kamala Harris a narrow 22%-19% edge over Newsom nationally, while New Hampshire sampling favors Pete Buttigieg at 20%; markets diverge, weighting Newsom's visibility higher amid party recalibration. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff at 6% leverages swing-state incumbency, but no contender exceeds 25% in this wide-open primary. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes, early Iowa caucus polling, and donor commitments before the 2028 convention.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于加文·纽瑟姆 24.1%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.1%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.7%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.3%
$935,788,698 交易量
$935,788,698 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
马克·凯利
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
加文·纽瑟姆 24.1%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.1%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.7%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.3%
$935,788,698 交易量
$935,788,698 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
马克·凯利
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices California Governor Gavin Newsom as the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24% implied probability, buoyed by his executive experience, national fundraising strength, and high-profile clashes with Trump administration policies following the 2024 election loss. Recent polls show a fragmented field, with a late March JL Partners survey giving former Vice President Kamala Harris a narrow 22%-19% edge over Newsom nationally, while New Hampshire sampling favors Pete Buttigieg at 20%; markets diverge, weighting Newsom's visibility higher amid party recalibration. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff at 6% leverages swing-state incumbency, but no contender exceeds 25% in this wide-open primary. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes, early Iowa caucus polling, and donor commitments before the 2028 convention.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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