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2028年民主党总统候选人

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2028年民主党总统候选人

加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%

分组项标题:亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.1%

乔恩·奥索夫 5.6%

分组项标题:卡马拉·哈里斯 4.5%

Polymarket

$936,747,641 交易量

加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%

分组项标题:亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.1%

乔恩·奥索夫 5.6%

分组项标题:卡马拉·哈里斯 4.5%

Polymarket

$936,747,641 交易量

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加文·纽瑟姆

$16,573,997 交易量

24%

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分组项标题:亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯

$6,133,951 交易量

8%

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乔恩·奥索夫

$5,846,776 交易量

6%

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分组项标题:卡马拉·哈里斯

$8,677,221 交易量

4%

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皮特·布蒂吉格

$9,476,280 交易量

4%

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乔什·沙皮罗

$5,875,614 交易量

4%

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安迪·贝希尔

$6,156,243 交易量

2%

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$3,609,452 交易量

2%

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乔恩·斯图尔特

$9,856,849 交易量

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,667,650 交易量

2%

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马克·凯利

$10,990,545 交易量

2%

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鲁本·加列戈

$3,553,380 交易量

2%

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分组条目标题:Wes Moore

$13,487,004 交易量

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,212,750 交易量

2%

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格雷琴·惠特默

$7,155,103 交易量

1%

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米歇尔·奥巴马

$21,402,458 交易量

1%

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拉姆·伊曼纽尔

$11,145,281 交易量

1%

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斯蒂芬·A·史密斯

$13,812,247 交易量

1%

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奥普拉·温弗瑞

$43,249,095 交易量

1%

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科里·布克

$21,221,109 交易量

1%

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马克·库班

$17,703,070 交易量

1%

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道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊

$8,728,347 交易量

1%

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约翰·费特曼

$16,947,112 交易量

1%

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分组项标题:Liz Cheney

$32,058,776 交易量

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$32,987,825 交易量

1%

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切尔西·克林顿

$44,386,497 交易量

1%

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克里斯·墨菲

$11,396,854 交易量

1%

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罗伊·库珀

$24,673,378 交易量

1%

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勒布朗·詹姆斯

$38,536,222 交易量

1%

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吉娜·雷蒙多

$27,321,887 交易量

1%

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乔治·克洛尼

$37,195,149 交易量

1%

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分组条目标题:金·卡戴珊

$32,843,365 交易量

1%

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分组项标题:贾里德·波利斯

$19,319,983 交易量

1%

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分组项标题:MrBeast

$35,185,756 交易量

1%

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希拉里·克林顿

$37,376,268 交易量

1%

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巴拉克·奥巴马

$25,718,467 交易量

1%

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蒂姆·沃尔茨

$36,471,112 交易量

1%

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杨安德鲁

$41,997,383 交易量

1%

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菲尔·墨菲

$33,395,361 交易量

1%

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亨特·拜登

$31,414,072 交易量

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,378,416 交易量

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$24,522,115 交易量

1%

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伯尼·桑德斯

$38,664,255 交易量

1%

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贝托·奥罗克

$31,451,883 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom at 24% to secure the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field lacking an incumbent after the 2024 defeat, reflecting his executive experience as California governor, national fundraising prowess, and high visibility from recent anti-Trump interviews warning of potential Democratic losses. Recent New Hampshire polls highlight volatility—Saint Anselm (March 16-18) shows Pete Buttigieg leading at 29% with Newsom dropping to 15%, while Emerson (March 21-23) has Buttigieg at 20%, AOC at 12%, and Newsom tied near 12%—yet markets favor Newsom's electability edge over AOC's progressive base appeal or Ossoff's battleground credentials. Consolidation could follow 2026 midterms, key endorsements, or economic shifts under the Republican administration.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom at 24% to secure the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field lacking an incumbent after the 2024 defeat, reflecting his executive experience as California governor, national fundraising prowess, and high visibility from recent anti-Trump interviews warning of potential Democratic losses. Recent New Hampshire polls highlight volatility—Saint Anselm (March 16-18) shows Pete Buttigieg leading at 29% with Newsom dropping to 15%, while Emerson (March 21-23) has Buttigieg at 20%, AOC at 12%, and Newsom tied near 12%—yet markets favor Newsom's electability edge over AOC's progressive base appeal or Ossoff's battleground credentials. Consolidation could follow 2026 midterms, key endorsements, or economic shifts under the Republican administration.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom at 24% to secure the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field lacking an incumbent after the 2024 defeat, reflecting his executive experience as California governor, national fundraising prowess, and high visibility from recent anti-Trump interviews warning of potential Democratic losses. Recent New Hampshire polls highlight volatility—Saint Anselm (March 16-18) shows Pete Buttigieg leading at 29% with Newsom dropping to 15%, while Emerson (March 21-23) has Buttigieg at 20%, AOC at 12%, and Newsom tied near 12%—yet markets favor Newsom's electability edge over AOC's progressive base appeal or Ossoff's battleground credentials. Consolidation could follow 2026 midterms, key endorsements, or economic shifts under the Republican administration.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom at 24% to secure the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field lacking an incumbent after the 2024 defeat, reflecting his executive experience as California governor, national fundraising prowess, and high visibility from recent anti-Trump interviews warning of potential Democratic losses. Recent New Hampshire polls highlight volatility—Saint Anselm (March 16-18) shows Pete Buttigieg leading at 29% with Newsom dropping to 15%, while Emerson (March 21-23) has Buttigieg at 20%, AOC at 12%, and Newsom tied near 12%—yet markets favor Newsom's electability edge over AOC's progressive base appeal or Ossoff's battleground credentials. Consolidation could follow 2026 midterms, key endorsements, or economic shifts under the Republican administration.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"2028年民主党总统候选人"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 44+ 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"加文·纽瑟姆",概率为 24%,其次是"分组项标题:亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯",概率为 8%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 24¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 24%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"2028年民主党总统候选人"已产生 $936.7 million 的总交易量(自Jul 11, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2028年民主党总统候选人"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 44+ 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2028年民主党总统候选人"的当前领先者是"加文·纽瑟姆",概率为 24%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 24%。紧随其后的结果是"分组项标题:亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯",概率为 8%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2028年民主党总统候选人"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。