Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his executive experience as California governor, national visibility from past debates and book tours in early primary states like New Hampshire, and a recent POLITICO poll showing him dominating Kamala Harris in their home-state primary matchup. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff's 5.4% stems from his Georgia Senate incumbency in a battleground. The wide-open field post-2024 anticipates 2026 midterms as a key test, where strong gubernatorial or Senate performances, fundraising dominance, and party endorsements could consolidate support amid varying polls favoring Harris nationally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.0%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.4%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.5%
$953,905,745 交易量
$953,905,745 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
5%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
安迪·贝希尔
3%
J.B. Pritzker
3%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
马克·凯利
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.0%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.4%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.5%
$953,905,745 交易量
$953,905,745 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
5%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
安迪·贝希尔
3%
J.B. Pritzker
3%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
马克·凯利
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his executive experience as California governor, national visibility from past debates and book tours in early primary states like New Hampshire, and a recent POLITICO poll showing him dominating Kamala Harris in their home-state primary matchup. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff's 5.4% stems from his Georgia Senate incumbency in a battleground. The wide-open field post-2024 anticipates 2026 midterms as a key test, where strong gubernatorial or Senate performances, fundraising dominance, and party endorsements could consolidate support amid varying polls favoring Harris nationally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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