Trader consensus on Polymarket favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a wide-open field following the party's 2024 setbacks, driven by his national profile as a Trump critic, recent California polling leads among Democrats, and a March 24 Politico interview signaling post-2026 midterm ambitions. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3%, buoyed by progressive grassroots support and February Munich appearances enhancing her global stature. Key differentiators include Newsom's executive experience and fundraising strength versus AOC's ideological appeal; governors like Shapiro and Whitmer offer battleground credentials. Consolidation could follow 2026 midterm results, with strong performers in swing districts or statewide races gaining endorsements and momentum ahead of primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.3%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.7%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.3%
$934,633,496 交易量
$934,633,496 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
马克·凯利
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 8.3%
乔恩·奥索夫 5.7%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.3%
$934,633,496 交易量
$934,633,496 交易量
加文·纽瑟姆
24%
分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
8%
乔恩·奥索夫
6%
分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯
4%
乔什·沙皮罗
4%
皮特·布蒂吉格
4%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
2%
安迪·贝希尔
2%
乔恩·斯图尔特
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
马克·凯利
2%
鲁本·加列戈
2%
分组条目标题：Wes Moore
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
格雷琴·惠特默
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
奥普拉·温弗瑞
1%
科里·布克
1%
拉姆·伊曼纽尔
1%
斯蒂芬·A·史密斯
1%
马克·库班
1%
道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊
1%
克里斯·墨菲
1%
约翰·费特曼
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
切尔西·克林顿
1%
罗伊·库珀
1%
吉娜·雷蒙多
1%
分组项标题：Liz Cheney
1%
分组项标题：MrBeast
1%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
乔治·克洛尼
1%
分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊
1%
分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯
1%
希拉里·克林顿
1%
蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
杨安德鲁
1%
菲尔·墨菲
1%
亨特·拜登
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
伯尼·桑德斯
1%
贝托·奥罗克
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a wide-open field following the party's 2024 setbacks, driven by his national profile as a Trump critic, recent California polling leads among Democrats, and a March 24 Politico interview signaling post-2026 midterm ambitions. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3%, buoyed by progressive grassroots support and February Munich appearances enhancing her global stature. Key differentiators include Newsom's executive experience and fundraising strength versus AOC's ideological appeal; governors like Shapiro and Whitmer offer battleground credentials. Consolidation could follow 2026 midterm results, with strong performers in swing districts or statewide races gaining endorsements and momentum ahead of primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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