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政治·加拿大

加拿大新民主党领袖选举获胜者

Market icon
政治·加拿大

加拿大新民主党领袖选举获胜者

艾维·刘易斯 96.4%

希瑟·麦克弗森 2.6%

比安卡·穆吉耶尼 <1%

托尼·麦克奎尔 <1%

Polymarket

$101,491 交易量

艾维·刘易斯 96.4%

希瑟·麦克弗森 2.6%

比安卡·穆吉耶尼 <1%

托尼·麦克奎尔 <1%

Polymarket

$101,491 交易量

艾维·刘易斯

$32,319 交易量

96%

希瑟·麦克弗森

$28,477 交易量

3%

比安卡·穆吉耶尼

$8,014 交易量

<1%

托尼·麦克奎尔

$6,429 交易量

<1%

罗布·阿什顿

$10,554 交易量

<1%

谭妮尔·约翰逊

$15,698 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the Canadian New Democratic Party Leadership election scheduled for March 29, 2026. The primary resolution source will be official New Democratic Party announcements; if unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used. If no official winner has been declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Avi Lewis commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96% implied probability to win the New Democratic Party leadership as member voting concludes March 28 ahead of the Winnipeg convention, driven by his dominant fundraising—far outpacing rivals like Heather McPherson—and strong momentum from final campaign pitches highlighting bold progressive policies amid the NDP's post-election crisis with just seven seats. Recent polls underscore his frontrunner status despite low overall candidate name recognition among former voters, reflecting party members' preference for his activist profile over challengers Rob Ashton, Tony McQuail, Tanille Johnson, and Bianca Mugyenyi. While his past electoral losses raise electability concerns, an upset would require a dramatic late shift in preferential ballots or unforeseen scandal, though structural barriers favor continuity.

Avi Lewis commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96% implied probability to win the New Democratic Party leadership as member voting concludes March 28 ahead of the Winnipeg convention, driven by his dominant fundraising—far outpacing rivals like Heather McPherson—and strong momentum from final campaign pitches highlighting bold progressive policies amid the NDP's post-election crisis with just seven seats. Recent polls underscore his frontrunner status despite low overall candidate name recognition among former voters, reflecting party members' preference for his activist profile over challengers Rob Ashton, Tony McQuail, Tanille Johnson, and Bianca Mugyenyi. While his past electoral losses raise electability concerns, an upset would require a dramatic late shift in preferential ballots or unforeseen scandal, though structural barriers favor continuity.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the Canadian New Democratic Party Leadership election scheduled for March 29, 2026. The primary resolution source will be official New Democratic Party announcements; if unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used. If no official winner has been declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Avi Lewis commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96% implied probability to win the New Democratic Party leadership as member voting concludes March 28 ahead of the Winnipeg convention, driven by his dominant fundraising—far outpacing rivals like Heather McPherson—and strong momentum from final campaign pitches highlighting bold progressive policies amid the NDP's post-election crisis with just seven seats. Recent polls underscore his frontrunner status despite low overall candidate name recognition among former voters, reflecting party members' preference for his activist profile over challengers Rob Ashton, Tony McQuail, Tanille Johnson, and Bianca Mugyenyi. While his past electoral losses raise electability concerns, an upset would require a dramatic late shift in preferential ballots or unforeseen scandal, though structural barriers favor continuity.

Avi Lewis commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96% implied probability to win the New Democratic Party leadership as member voting concludes March 28 ahead of the Winnipeg convention, driven by his dominant fundraising—far outpacing rivals like Heather McPherson—and strong momentum from final campaign pitches highlighting bold progressive policies amid the NDP's post-election crisis with just seven seats. Recent polls underscore his frontrunner status despite low overall candidate name recognition among former voters, reflecting party members' preference for his activist profile over challengers Rob Ashton, Tony McQuail, Tanille Johnson, and Bianca Mugyenyi. While his past electoral losses raise electability concerns, an upset would require a dramatic late shift in preferential ballots or unforeseen scandal, though structural barriers favor continuity.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"加拿大新民主党领袖选举获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 6 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"艾维·刘易斯"，概率为 96%，其次是"希瑟·麦克弗森"，概率为 3%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 96¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 96%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"加拿大新民主党领袖选举获胜者"已产生 $101.5K 的总交易量（自Jan 7, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"加拿大新民主党领袖选举获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 6 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"加拿大新民主党领袖选举获胜者"的当前领先者是"艾维·刘易斯"，概率为 96%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 96%。紧随其后的结果是"希瑟·麦克弗森"，概率为 3%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"加拿大新民主党领袖选举获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。