Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% for the April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 decision to maintain rates amid balanced risks. February CPI cooled to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—keeping inflation near the 2% target despite base effects and looming energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil volatility. A softening labor market, with unemployment at 6.7%, tempers cut expectations, while Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized judgment over data-dependence in uncertain times. This strong no-change positioning faces realistic challenges from hotter March CPI (due April 20) sparking hike bets or sharper economic weakness prompting a 25 basis points cut, though both trail at under 2%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于维持原状 97.3%
加息 1.8%
降息25个基点 <1%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$80,363 交易量
$80,363 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
<1%
降息25个基点
1%
维持原状
97%
加息
2%
维持原状 97.3%
加息 1.8%
降息25个基点 <1%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$80,363 交易量
$80,363 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
$21,380 交易量
<1%
降息25个基点
$25,139 交易量
1%
维持原状
$23,490 交易量
97%
加息
$10,854 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% for the April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 decision to maintain rates amid balanced risks. February CPI cooled to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—keeping inflation near the 2% target despite base effects and looming energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil volatility. A softening labor market, with unemployment at 6.7%, tempers cut expectations, while Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized judgment over data-dependence in uncertain times. This strong no-change positioning faces realistic challenges from hotter March CPI (due April 20) sparking hike bets or sharper economic weakness prompting a 25 basis points cut, though both trail at under 2%.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
交易量
$80,363结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% for the April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 decision to maintain rates amid balanced risks. February CPI cooled to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—keeping inflation near the 2% target despite base effects and looming energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil volatility. A softening labor market, with unemployment at 6.7%, tempers cut expectations, while Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized judgment over data-dependence in uncertain times. This strong no-change positioning faces realistic challenges from hotter March CPI (due April 20) sparking hike bets or sharper economic weakness prompting a 25 basis points cut, though both trail at under 2%.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$80,363结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% for the April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 decision to maintain rates amid balanced risks. February CPI cooled to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—keeping inflation near the 2% target despite base effects and looming energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil volatility. A softening labor market, with unemployment at 6.7%, tempers cut expectations, while Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized judgment over data-dependence in uncertain times. This strong no-change positioning faces realistic challenges from hotter March CPI (due April 20) sparking hike bets or sharper economic weakness prompting a 25 basis points cut, though both trail at under 2%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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