US special forces conducted a targeted raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who now face US drug trafficking charges in New York; the operation involved nearly 200 troops, airstrikes, and seven US injuries but marked a brief incursion rather than occupation. With Maduro detained, interim leader Delcy Rodríguez oversees a fragile transition amid US control of Venezuelan oil assets. Diplomatic ties have warmed, evidenced by the US embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions lifted on Rodríguez this week. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized a needed transition to free elections, while President Trump has not ruled out additional troop deployments if instability escalates. Congressional efforts to limit military actions failed in January, leaving room for future executive decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,257,535 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
March 31
1%
June 30
13%
$1,257,535 Vol.
March 31
$3,502 Vol.
1%
June 30
$173,944 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a targeted raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who now face US drug trafficking charges in New York; the operation involved nearly 200 troops, airstrikes, and seven US injuries but marked a brief incursion rather than occupation. With Maduro detained, interim leader Delcy Rodríguez oversees a fragile transition amid US control of Venezuelan oil assets. Diplomatic ties have warmed, evidenced by the US embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions lifted on Rodríguez this week. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized a needed transition to free elections, while President Trump has not ruled out additional troop deployments if instability escalates. Congressional efforts to limit military actions failed in January, leaving room for future executive decisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,257,535End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a targeted raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who now face US drug trafficking charges in New York; the operation involved nearly 200 troops, airstrikes, and seven US injuries but marked a brief incursion rather than occupation. With Maduro detained, interim leader Delcy Rodríguez oversees a fragile transition amid US control of Venezuelan oil assets. Diplomatic ties have warmed, evidenced by the US embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions lifted on Rodríguez this week. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized a needed transition to free elections, while President Trump has not ruled out additional troop deployments if instability escalates. Congressional efforts to limit military actions failed in January, leaving room for future executive decisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,257,535End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US special forces conducted a targeted raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who now face US drug trafficking charges in New York; the operation involved nearly 200 troops, airstrikes, and seven US injuries but marked a brief incursion rather than occupation. With Maduro detained, interim leader Delcy Rodríguez oversees a fragile transition amid US control of Venezuelan oil assets. Diplomatic ties have warmed, evidenced by the US embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions lifted on Rodríguez this week. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized a needed transition to free elections, while President Trump has not ruled out additional troop deployments if instability escalates. Congressional efforts to limit military actions failed in January, leaving room for future executive decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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