Xi Jinping’s consolidated authority within the Chinese Communist Party and military underpins the market’s 95.7% implied probability that he remains in power through 2026. Ongoing purges, including the September 2026 expulsion of senior Central Military Commission figures Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have further centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army without evidence of eroding his position. The absence of a publicly designated successor continues to limit alternative power centers, while the October 2026 Central Committee plenum on party discipline sets the stage for the 21st Party Congress in late 2027, where analysts widely anticipate Xi securing a fourth term. Although trader consensus reflects these structural realities, low-probability developments such as an acute health event or sudden elite realignment could still shift outcomes before the year ends.