Recent Chinese Communist Party proceedings, including the October 2026 fifth plenum, have reinforced trader expectations that Xi Jinping will remain in power through the 21st National Congress in the second half of 2027. Extensive purges across the Central Committee, Politburo, and Central Military Commission—removing dozens of senior officials on discipline grounds—have eliminated potential rivals and centralized authority without designating a successor. State media continue to emphasize unity around the party core ahead of the twice-a-decade leadership transition. This institutional consolidation, combined with Xi’s prior abolition of term limits and absence of credible challenges, underpins the 98.5% implied probability on “No.” Health developments or sudden elite fractures remain the primary low-probability factors that could alter the timeline.