The U.S.-Iran ceasefire, established on April 8, 2026, and later extended indefinitely, continues amid stalled bilateral talks and intermittent violations. Recent developments include Iran's submission of proposals rejected by the United States as unacceptable in mid-May, ongoing U.S. naval blockades tied to Strait of Hormuz access, and limited military reconstitution efforts on both sides. Diplomatic channels through Pakistan and other mediators remain active, focusing on nuclear programs, sanctions, and de-escalation, though no comprehensive agreement has emerged. These dynamics, including sporadic incidents such as drone activity, shape trader assessments of whether the current pause in major hostilities will hold through key upcoming periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$287,768 Vol.
May 20
96%
May 21
80%
May 22
79%
May 24
68%
May 27
54%
May 31
34%
June 7
39%
June 15
37%
June 30
34%
July 31
30%
December 31
24%
$287,768 Vol.
May 20
$96,971 Vol.
96%
May 21
$102,563 Vol.
80%
May 22
$39,344 Vol.
79%
May 24
$24,066 Vol.
68%
May 27
$20,921 Vol.
54%
May 31
$13,983 Vol.
34%
June 7
$4,537 Vol.
39%
June 15
$4,936 Vol.
37%
June 30
$2,976 Vol.
34%
July 31
$6,156 Vol.
30%
December 31
$7,487 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S.-Iran ceasefire, established on April 8, 2026, and later extended indefinitely, continues amid stalled bilateral talks and intermittent violations. Recent developments include Iran's submission of proposals rejected by the United States as unacceptable in mid-May, ongoing U.S. naval blockades tied to Strait of Hormuz access, and limited military reconstitution efforts on both sides. Diplomatic channels through Pakistan and other mediators remain active, focusing on nuclear programs, sanctions, and de-escalation, though no comprehensive agreement has emerged. These dynamics, including sporadic incidents such as drone activity, shape trader assessments of whether the current pause in major hostilities will hold through key upcoming periods.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$287,768Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S.-Iran ceasefire, established on April 8, 2026, and later extended indefinitely, continues amid stalled bilateral talks and intermittent violations. Recent developments include Iran's submission of proposals rejected by the United States as unacceptable in mid-May, ongoing U.S. naval blockades tied to Strait of Hormuz access, and limited military reconstitution efforts on both sides. Diplomatic channels through Pakistan and other mediators remain active, focusing on nuclear programs, sanctions, and de-escalation, though no comprehensive agreement has emerged. These dynamics, including sporadic incidents such as drone activity, shape trader assessments of whether the current pause in major hostilities will hold through key upcoming periods.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$287,768Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S.-Iran ceasefire, established on April 8, 2026, and later extended indefinitely, continues amid stalled bilateral talks and intermittent violations. Recent developments include Iran's submission of proposals rejected by the United States as unacceptable in mid-May, ongoing U.S. naval blockades tied to Strait of Hormuz access, and limited military reconstitution efforts on both sides. Diplomatic channels through Pakistan and other mediators remain active, focusing on nuclear programs, sanctions, and de-escalation, though no comprehensive agreement has emerged. These dynamics, including sporadic incidents such as drone activity, shape trader assessments of whether the current pause in major hostilities will hold through key upcoming periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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