Polymarket traders assign a 96.4% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29 announcement, driven by the central bank's March 18 decision to hold the overnight target steady at 2.25%—its second pause of 2026—following February CPI inflation easing to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% prior. This strong consensus reflects Governor Tiff Macklem's emphasis on gauging tariff and geopolitical risks amid balanced labor market conditions and subdued core inflation measures. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected March CPI data or sharper growth weakness, potentially prompting a 25 basis points cut, though economist forecasts largely project stability through mid-2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBank of Canada decision in April?
Bank of Canada decision in April?
No change 96.6%
Increase 2.8%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$61,972 Vol.
$61,972 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
Increase
3%
No change 96.6%
Increase 2.8%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$61,972 Vol.
$61,972 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$15,671 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$22,236 Vol.
1%
No change
$14,901 Vol.
97%
Increase
$9,164 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 96.4% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29 announcement, driven by the central bank's March 18 decision to hold the overnight target steady at 2.25%—its second pause of 2026—following February CPI inflation easing to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% prior. This strong consensus reflects Governor Tiff Macklem's emphasis on gauging tariff and geopolitical risks amid balanced labor market conditions and subdued core inflation measures. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected March CPI data or sharper growth weakness, potentially prompting a 25 basis points cut, though economist forecasts largely project stability through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$61,972End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 96.4% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29 announcement, driven by the central bank's March 18 decision to hold the overnight target steady at 2.25%—its second pause of 2026—following February CPI inflation easing to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% prior. This strong consensus reflects Governor Tiff Macklem's emphasis on gauging tariff and geopolitical risks amid balanced labor market conditions and subdued core inflation measures. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected March CPI data or sharper growth weakness, potentially prompting a 25 basis points cut, though economist forecasts largely project stability through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$61,972End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 96.4% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29 announcement, driven by the central bank's March 18 decision to hold the overnight target steady at 2.25%—its second pause of 2026—following February CPI inflation easing to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% prior. This strong consensus reflects Governor Tiff Macklem's emphasis on gauging tariff and geopolitical risks amid balanced labor market conditions and subdued core inflation measures. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected March CPI data or sharper growth weakness, potentially prompting a 25 basis points cut, though economist forecasts largely project stability through mid-2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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