Portugal Presidential Election

$108,828,432 Vol.

Feb 8, 2026

António José Seguro (IND) 74.8%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) 10.2%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 7%

André Ventura (CH) 5.4%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

António José Seguro (IND)
$1,730,218 Vol.
75%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
$2,132,724 Vol.
10%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
$2,667,506 Vol.
7%

André Ventura (CH)
$5,859,989 Vol.
5%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)
$1,618,091 Vol.
1%

Rui Moreira (IND)
$3,598,619 Vol.
<1%

Paulo Portas (CDS)
$3,772,204 Vol.
<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)
$2,007,715 Vol.
<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)
$332,744 Vol.
<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)
$5,872,351 Vol.
<1%

André Pestana (IND)
$1,868,379 Vol.
<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)
$761,502 Vol.
<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)
$9,102,008 Vol.
<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)
$3,473,043 Vol.
<1%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)
$8,685,690 Vol.
<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)
$4,130,186 Vol.
<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)
$7,065,233 Vol.
<1%

António Filipe (PCP)
$6,604,216 Vol.
<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)
$18,880,005 Vol.
<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)
$8,439,206 Vol.
<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)
$3,908,224 Vol.
<1%

Jorge Pinto
$6,319,060 Vol.
<1%

Rules

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Created At: Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

Volume

$108,828,432

End Date

Feb 8, 2026

Created At

Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$108,828,432 Vol.

Feb 8, 2026

Portugal Presidential Election

António José Seguro (IND) 74.8%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) 10.2%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 7%

André Ventura (CH) 5.4%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

António José Seguro (IND)

$1,730,218 Vol.

75%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

$2,132,724 Vol.

10%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)

$2,667,506 Vol.

André Ventura (CH)

$5,859,989 Vol.

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)

$1,618,091 Vol.

Rui Moreira (IND)

$3,598,619 Vol.

<1%

Paulo Portas (CDS)

$3,772,204 Vol.

<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)

$2,007,715 Vol.

<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)

$332,744 Vol.

<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)

$5,872,351 Vol.

<1%

André Pestana (IND)

$1,868,379 Vol.

<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)

$761,502 Vol.

<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)

$9,102,008 Vol.

<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)

$3,473,043 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)

$8,685,690 Vol.

<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)

$4,130,186 Vol.

<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)

$7,065,233 Vol.

<1%

António Filipe (PCP)

$6,604,216 Vol.

<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)

$18,880,005 Vol.

<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)

$8,439,206 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)

$3,908,224 Vol.

<1%

Jorge Pinto

$6,319,060 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$108,828,432

End Date

Feb 8, 2026

Created At

Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

47%

Will António José Seguro win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

40%

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

46%

Beware of external links.

Portugal Presidential Election

António José Seguro (IND)
$1,730,218 Vol.
75%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
$2,132,724 Vol.
10%