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China GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Market icon

China GDP growth in Q4 2025?

4.5-5.0% 100.0%

<2.5% <1%

2.5-3.0% <1%

3.0-3.5% <1%

Polymarket

$469,697 Vol.

4.5-5.0% 100.0%

<2.5% <1%

2.5-3.0% <1%

3.0-3.5% <1%

Polymarket

$469,697 Vol.

<2.5%

$157,368 Vol.

No

2.5-3.0%

$44,634 Vol.

No

3.0-3.5%

$37,661 Vol.

No

3.5-4.0%

$37,038 Vol.

No

4.0-4.5%

$65,697 Vol.

No

4.5-5.0%

$41,587 Vol.

Yes

>5.0%

$85,714 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for some time in January, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$469,697
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 9, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for some time in January, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"China GDP growth in Q4 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.5-5.0%" at 100%, followed by "<2.5%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "China GDP growth in Q4 2025?" has generated $469.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "China GDP growth in Q4 2025?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "China GDP growth in Q4 2025?" is "4.5-5.0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<2.5%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "China GDP growth in Q4 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.