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First leader out of power in 2025?

Market icon

First leader out of power in 2025?

Ishiba - Japan PM 100.0%

al-Sharaa - Syria President <1%

Meloni - Italy PM <1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President <1%

Polymarket

$64,368,639 Vol.

Ishiba - Japan PM 100.0%

al-Sharaa - Syria President <1%

Meloni - Italy PM <1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President <1%

Polymarket

$64,368,639 Vol.

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? icon

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$1,491,993 Vol.

No

Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Meloni - Italy PM

$812,942 Vol.

No

Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Ishiba - Japan PM

$2,093,494 Vol.

Yes

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$10,288,596 Vol.

No

Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Putin - Russia President

$1,782,662 Vol.

No

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$1,645,702 Vol.

No

Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Macron - France President

$1,659,437 Vol.

No

Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? icon

el-Sisi - Egypt President

$791,893 Vol.

No

Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Trump - USA President

$2,519,416 Vol.

No

Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Starmer - UK PM

$1,434,881 Vol.

No

Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Milei - Argentina President

$781,298 Vol.

No

Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Newsom - California Governor

$552,939 Vol.

No

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$1,593,629 Vol.

No

Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Albanese - Australia PM

$17,791,731 Vol.

No

Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Maduro - Venezuela President

$2,046,071 Vol.

No

Will no leader be out in 2025? icon

None in 2025

$2,181,638 Vol.

No

Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

$1,740,272 Vol.

No

Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Xi - General Secretary of CCP

$1,833,966 Vol.

No

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$833,893 Vol.

No

Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? icon

Kim - Supreme Leader of NK

$10,492,185 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,368,639
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,368,639
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"First leader out of power in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ishiba - Japan PM" at 100%, followed by "al-Sharaa - Syria President" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "First leader out of power in 2025?" has generated $64.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "First leader out of power in 2025?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "First leader out of power in 2025?" is "Ishiba - Japan PM" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "al-Sharaa - Syria President" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "First leader out of power in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.