Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 20-22, 2026 (12:00 PM ET), driven by the official xtracker.polymarket.com tally confirming exactly 60 qualifying posts—main feed originals, quotes, and reposts—before the market expired. This reflects Musk's recent posting slowdown to around 20 per day, a shift from his typical 30+ viral bursts amid heightened focus on SpaceX launches and Tesla milestones over the past week, tempering political and tech commentary. With the market now in review, realistic upsets hinge on rare disputes over borderline replies, deleted posts not captured within five minutes, or tracker discrepancies against X's data, though traders see minimal risk given the locked count and high-volume scrutiny.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$2,804,033 Vol.
$2,804,033 Vol.
<40
No
40-64
Yes
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$2,804,033 Vol.
$2,804,033 Vol.
<40
No
40-64
Yes
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 18, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 20-22, 2026 (12:00 PM ET), driven by the official xtracker.polymarket.com tally confirming exactly 60 qualifying posts—main feed originals, quotes, and reposts—before the market expired. This reflects Musk's recent posting slowdown to around 20 per day, a shift from his typical 30+ viral bursts amid heightened focus on SpaceX launches and Tesla milestones over the past week, tempering political and tech commentary. With the market now in review, realistic upsets hinge on rare disputes over borderline replies, deleted posts not captured within five minutes, or tracker discrepancies against X's data, though traders see minimal risk given the locked count and high-volume scrutiny.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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