Preliminary data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) confirm 188 tornadoes across the US in March 2024 as of March 31, fueled by repeated severe weather outbreaks in the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast driven by volatile atmospheric conditions including high instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture surges. This shatters the historical March average of about 78 tornadoes (1980–2023 climatology), with multiple EF2+ twisters amid record-breaking activity, yielding trader consensus of 98.6% implied probability for 150+. Final ratings from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information may adjust a few marginally, but downgrades sufficient to fall below 150 would require unprecedented revisions amid overwhelming survey evidence; watch for official monthly tally release in coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in March?
How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
150+ 98.4%
130–149 <1%
70–99 <1%
100–129 <1%
$95,968 Vol.
$95,968 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<70
<1%
70–99
<1%
100–129
<1%
130–149
1%
150+
98%
150+ 98.4%
130–149 <1%
70–99 <1%
100–129 <1%
$95,968 Vol.
$95,968 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<70
$25,180 Vol.
<1%
70–99
$22,659 Vol.
<1%
100–129
$0 Vol.
<1%
130–149
$0 Vol.
1%
150+
$48,129 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) confirm 188 tornadoes across the US in March 2024 as of March 31, fueled by repeated severe weather outbreaks in the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast driven by volatile atmospheric conditions including high instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture surges. This shatters the historical March average of about 78 tornadoes (1980–2023 climatology), with multiple EF2+ twisters amid record-breaking activity, yielding trader consensus of 98.6% implied probability for 150+. Final ratings from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information may adjust a few marginally, but downgrades sufficient to fall below 150 would require unprecedented revisions amid overwhelming survey evidence; watch for official monthly tally release in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$95,968End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) confirm 188 tornadoes across the US in March 2024 as of March 31, fueled by repeated severe weather outbreaks in the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast driven by volatile atmospheric conditions including high instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture surges. This shatters the historical March average of about 78 tornadoes (1980–2023 climatology), with multiple EF2+ twisters amid record-breaking activity, yielding trader consensus of 98.6% implied probability for 150+. Final ratings from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information may adjust a few marginally, but downgrades sufficient to fall below 150 would require unprecedented revisions amid overwhelming survey evidence; watch for official monthly tally release in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$95,968End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) confirm 188 tornadoes across the US in March 2024 as of March 31, fueled by repeated severe weather outbreaks in the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast driven by volatile atmospheric conditions including high instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture surges. This shatters the historical March average of about 78 tornadoes (1980–2023 climatology), with multiple EF2+ twisters amid record-breaking activity, yielding trader consensus of 98.6% implied probability for 150+. Final ratings from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information may adjust a few marginally, but downgrades sufficient to fall below 150 would require unprecedented revisions amid overwhelming survey evidence; watch for official monthly tally release in coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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