Recent oil revenue-sharing agreements between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Iraq's federal government in Baghdad have strengthened economic interdependence, anchoring trader consensus at an 83.5% implied probability against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026. In March 2026, Iraq resumed Kirkuk crude exports via the Ceyhan pipeline at 170,000 barrels per day—ramping toward 250,000—after resolving export disputes, followed by the KRG's April transfer of over $30 million in non-oil revenues. These developments address chronic salary shortfalls and constitutional tensions over Kirkuk and budgets, echoing the failed 2017 independence referendum that cost the KRG disputed territories. Absent official KRG announcements or escalatory moves, traders see formidable barriers to separation amid ongoing federal integration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
NEW
$18,462 Vol.
NEW
$18,462 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
$18,462 Vol.
NEW
$18,462 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent oil revenue-sharing agreements between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Iraq's federal government in Baghdad have strengthened economic interdependence, anchoring trader consensus at an 83.5% implied probability against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026. In March 2026, Iraq resumed Kirkuk crude exports via the Ceyhan pipeline at 170,000 barrels per day—ramping toward 250,000—after resolving export disputes, followed by the KRG's April transfer of over $30 million in non-oil revenues. These developments address chronic salary shortfalls and constitutional tensions over Kirkuk and budgets, echoing the failed 2017 independence referendum that cost the KRG disputed territories. Absent official KRG announcements or escalatory moves, traders see formidable barriers to separation amid ongoing federal integration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$18,462End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent oil revenue-sharing agreements between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Iraq's federal government in Baghdad have strengthened economic interdependence, anchoring trader consensus at an 83.5% implied probability against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026. In March 2026, Iraq resumed Kirkuk crude exports via the Ceyhan pipeline at 170,000 barrels per day—ramping toward 250,000—after resolving export disputes, followed by the KRG's April transfer of over $30 million in non-oil revenues. These developments address chronic salary shortfalls and constitutional tensions over Kirkuk and budgets, echoing the failed 2017 independence referendum that cost the KRG disputed territories. Absent official KRG announcements or escalatory moves, traders see formidable barriers to separation amid ongoing federal integration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$18,462End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent oil revenue-sharing agreements between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Iraq's federal government in Baghdad have strengthened economic interdependence, anchoring trader consensus at an 83.5% implied probability against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026. In March 2026, Iraq resumed Kirkuk crude exports via the Ceyhan pipeline at 170,000 barrels per day—ramping toward 250,000—after resolving export disputes, followed by the KRG's April transfer of over $30 million in non-oil revenues. These developments address chronic salary shortfalls and constitutional tensions over Kirkuk and budgets, echoing the failed 2017 independence referendum that cost the KRG disputed territories. Absent official KRG announcements or escalatory moves, traders see formidable barriers to separation amid ongoing federal integration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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