US special forces conducted a targeted raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores for trial in the United States, marking the initial military incursion that prompted this market on potential re-entry. Forces withdrew shortly after, installing an interim government under former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, with Washington lifting sanctions on her this week and reopening its embassy on March 30 amid diplomatic thawing. President Trump's mid-March order for direct military oversight by Secretary Pete Hegseth aims to monitor security amid threats from Maduro loyalists like Diosdado Cabello, but no confirmed troop re-entry has occurred. Trader sentiment weighs transition stability against risks of escalation, with no major scheduled events but ongoing coalition negotiations and Essequibo dispute resolution as key factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,257,479 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
March 31
1%
June 30
13%
$1,257,479 Vol.
March 31
$3,486 Vol.
1%
June 30
$173,904 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a targeted raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores for trial in the United States, marking the initial military incursion that prompted this market on potential re-entry. Forces withdrew shortly after, installing an interim government under former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, with Washington lifting sanctions on her this week and reopening its embassy on March 30 amid diplomatic thawing. President Trump's mid-March order for direct military oversight by Secretary Pete Hegseth aims to monitor security amid threats from Maduro loyalists like Diosdado Cabello, but no confirmed troop re-entry has occurred. Trader sentiment weighs transition stability against risks of escalation, with no major scheduled events but ongoing coalition negotiations and Essequibo dispute resolution as key factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 9:22 AM ET
Volume
$1,257,479End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 9:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a targeted raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores for trial in the United States, marking the initial military incursion that prompted this market on potential re-entry. Forces withdrew shortly after, installing an interim government under former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, with Washington lifting sanctions on her this week and reopening its embassy on March 30 amid diplomatic thawing. President Trump's mid-March order for direct military oversight by Secretary Pete Hegseth aims to monitor security amid threats from Maduro loyalists like Diosdado Cabello, but no confirmed troop re-entry has occurred. Trader sentiment weighs transition stability against risks of escalation, with no major scheduled events but ongoing coalition negotiations and Essequibo dispute resolution as key factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,257,479End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 9:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US special forces conducted a targeted raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores for trial in the United States, marking the initial military incursion that prompted this market on potential re-entry. Forces withdrew shortly after, installing an interim government under former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, with Washington lifting sanctions on her this week and reopening its embassy on March 30 amid diplomatic thawing. President Trump's mid-March order for direct military oversight by Secretary Pete Hegseth aims to monitor security amid threats from Maduro loyalists like Diosdado Cabello, but no confirmed troop re-entry has occurred. Trader sentiment weighs transition stability against risks of escalation, with no major scheduled events but ongoing coalition negotiations and Essequibo dispute resolution as key factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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