Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.5% against SpaceX going public via Bill Ackman's Pershing Square SPARC Holdings and its special purpose acquisition rights (SPARs), as the hedge fund manager's unsolicited December 2025 proposal—distributing 0.5 SPARs per Tesla share to raise $42 billion fee-free—has seen zero official response from Elon Musk or SpaceX. Recent developments, including SpaceX's confidential SEC IPO filing targeting a June 2026 listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation under "Project Apex" with Morgan Stanley as lead underwriter, signal a traditional public offering path amid corporate restructuring and retail investor allocations. While regulatory delays, market volatility, or IPO setbacks could theoretically revive Ackman's structure, SpaceX's momentum toward direct listing makes such a pivot highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:
- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.
If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.5% against SpaceX going public via Bill Ackman's Pershing Square SPARC Holdings and its special purpose acquisition rights (SPARs), as the hedge fund manager's unsolicited December 2025 proposal—distributing 0.5 SPARs per Tesla share to raise $42 billion fee-free—has seen zero official response from Elon Musk or SpaceX. Recent developments, including SpaceX's confidential SEC IPO filing targeting a June 2026 listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation under "Project Apex" with Morgan Stanley as lead underwriter, signal a traditional public offering path amid corporate restructuring and retail investor allocations. While regulatory delays, market volatility, or IPO setbacks could theoretically revive Ackman's structure, SpaceX's momentum toward direct listing makes such a pivot highly improbable.
Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:
- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.
If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:
- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.
If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$3,018End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:
- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.
If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.5% against SpaceX going public via Bill Ackman's Pershing Square SPARC Holdings and its special purpose acquisition rights (SPARs), as the hedge fund manager's unsolicited December 2025 proposal—distributing 0.5 SPARs per Tesla share to raise $42 billion fee-free—has seen zero official response from Elon Musk or SpaceX. Recent developments, including SpaceX's confidential SEC IPO filing targeting a June 2026 listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation under "Project Apex" with Morgan Stanley as lead underwriter, signal a traditional public offering path amid corporate restructuring and retail investor allocations. While regulatory delays, market volatility, or IPO setbacks could theoretically revive Ackman's structure, SpaceX's momentum toward direct listing makes such a pivot highly improbable.
Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:
- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.
If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:
- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.
If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,018End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.5% against SpaceX going public via Bill Ackman's Pershing Square SPARC Holdings and its special purpose acquisition rights (SPARs), as the hedge fund manager's unsolicited December 2025 proposal—distributing 0.5 SPARs per Tesla share to raise $42 billion fee-free—has seen zero official response from Elon Musk or SpaceX. Recent developments, including SpaceX's confidential SEC IPO filing targeting a June 2026 listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation under "Project Apex" with Morgan Stanley as lead underwriter, signal a traditional public offering path amid corporate restructuring and retail investor allocations. While regulatory delays, market volatility, or IPO setbacks could theoretically revive Ackman's structure, SpaceX's momentum toward direct listing makes such a pivot highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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