Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Seoul's highest temperature on March 27, with models converging around 11–13°C amid early spring conditions. The Korea Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a daytime high near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, while ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS show slight divergence: warmer solutions assume clearer skies boosting solar heating, cooler ones factor in persistent low-level clouds from a weakening high-pressure ridge. Historical March averages hover at 11°C, but recent mild air advection from the south has nudged odds upward from prior weeks' cooler outlooks. Key differentiator is afternoon cloud evolution—thicker cover could cap peaks at 11°C, while breaks favor 13°C. Watch KMA's 12Z update for refined probabilities as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on March 27?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 27?
12°C 27%
13°C 22%
11°C 17.7%
14°C 10%
$159,317 Vol.
$159,317 Vol.
6°C or below
4%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
6%
10°C
8%
11°C
18%
12°C
27%
13°C
22%
14°C
10%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
6%
12°C 27%
13°C 22%
11°C 17.7%
14°C 10%
$159,317 Vol.
$159,317 Vol.
6°C or below
4%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
6%
10°C
8%
11°C
18%
12°C
27%
13°C
22%
14°C
10%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Seoul's highest temperature on March 27, with models converging around 11–13°C amid early spring conditions. The Korea Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a daytime high near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, while ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS show slight divergence: warmer solutions assume clearer skies boosting solar heating, cooler ones factor in persistent low-level clouds from a weakening high-pressure ridge. Historical March averages hover at 11°C, but recent mild air advection from the south has nudged odds upward from prior weeks' cooler outlooks. Key differentiator is afternoon cloud evolution—thicker cover could cap peaks at 11°C, while breaks favor 13°C. Watch KMA's 12Z update for refined probabilities as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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