The strong Republican tilt of North Carolina's 3rd congressional district, combined with incumbent Greg Murphy's unopposed primary and substantial campaign resources, anchors the current trader consensus around an 84.5 percent probability for the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. Recent redistricting has preserved the district's partisan lean, with historical voting patterns showing double-digit margins favoring Republicans. The Democratic nominee, Raymond Smith Jr., emerged from the March 2026 primary but faces a structurally challenging path in this solidly Republican seat. No major developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primaries concluded, leaving the implied probability reflective of the district's established electoral math and limited Democratic infrastructure.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$18,673 거래량
$18,673 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
85%
민주당
13%
$18,673 거래량
$18,673 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$14,045 거래량
85%
민주당
$4,628 거래량
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of North Carolina's 3rd congressional district, combined with incumbent Greg Murphy's unopposed primary and substantial campaign resources, anchors the current trader consensus around an 84.5 percent probability for the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. Recent redistricting has preserved the district's partisan lean, with historical voting patterns showing double-digit margins favoring Republicans. The Democratic nominee, Raymond Smith Jr., emerged from the March 2026 primary but faces a structurally challenging path in this solidly Republican seat. No major developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primaries concluded, leaving the implied probability reflective of the district's established electoral math and limited Democratic infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$18,673종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of North Carolina's 3rd congressional district, combined with incumbent Greg Murphy's unopposed primary and substantial campaign resources, anchors the current trader consensus around an 84.5 percent probability for the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. Recent redistricting has preserved the district's partisan lean, with historical voting patterns showing double-digit margins favoring Republicans. The Democratic nominee, Raymond Smith Jr., emerged from the March 2026 primary but faces a structurally challenging path in this solidly Republican seat. No major developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primaries concluded, leaving the implied probability reflective of the district's established electoral math and limited Democratic infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$18,673종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican tilt of North Carolina's 3rd congressional district, combined with incumbent Greg Murphy's unopposed primary and substantial campaign resources, anchors the current trader consensus around an 84.5 percent probability for the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. Recent redistricting has preserved the district's partisan lean, with historical voting patterns showing double-digit margins favoring Republicans. The Democratic nominee, Raymond Smith Jr., emerged from the March 2026 primary but faces a structurally challenging path in this solidly Republican seat. No major developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primaries concluded, leaving the implied probability reflective of the district's established electoral math and limited Democratic infrastructure.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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