The district's established Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% probability for the Republican nominee. An open seat following Andy Biggs's decision not to seek reelection has produced a competitive July 21 primary featuring Mark Lamb, who holds a Trump endorsement and leads early polling, alongside other conservative contenders. On the Democratic side, limited name recognition and fundraising trail the Republican field, with no recent polling or endorsements indicating a viable path to victory. These structural factors and the absence of major developments in the past month sustain the current market pricing ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
14%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$6,675 거래량
81%
Democratic Party
$2,989 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's established Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% probability for the Republican nominee. An open seat following Andy Biggs's decision not to seek reelection has produced a competitive July 21 primary featuring Mark Lamb, who holds a Trump endorsement and leads early polling, alongside other conservative contenders. On the Democratic side, limited name recognition and fundraising trail the Republican field, with no recent polling or endorsements indicating a viable path to victory. These structural factors and the absence of major developments in the past month sustain the current market pricing ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$9,665종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's established Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% probability for the Republican nominee. An open seat following Andy Biggs's decision not to seek reelection has produced a competitive July 21 primary featuring Mark Lamb, who holds a Trump endorsement and leads early polling, alongside other conservative contenders. On the Democratic side, limited name recognition and fundraising trail the Republican field, with no recent polling or endorsements indicating a viable path to victory. These structural factors and the absence of major developments in the past month sustain the current market pricing ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$9,665종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's established Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus around an 83.5% probability for the Republican nominee. An open seat following Andy Biggs's decision not to seek reelection has produced a competitive July 21 primary featuring Mark Lamb, who holds a Trump endorsement and leads early polling, alongside other conservative contenders. On the Democratic side, limited name recognition and fundraising trail the Republican field, with no recent polling or endorsements indicating a viable path to victory. These structural factors and the absence of major developments in the past month sustain the current market pricing ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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