The open seat in Arizona’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Andy Biggs’s retirement to run for governor, has positioned Republicans as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the November 2026 general election. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 80.5 percent implied probability, reinforced by a competitive GOP primary featuring Trump-endorsed Mark Lamb and other established candidates ahead of the July 21 contest. Democrats have fielded multiple primary contenders, yet the seat’s structural Republican advantage and absence of recent polling shifts that would narrow the gap limit their prospects to the 13.5 percent range. Upcoming primary outcomes and any late shifts in candidate strength remain the primary variables that could adjust market pricing before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$10,050 거래량
$10,050 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
14%
$10,050 거래량
$10,050 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$7,060 거래량
81%
Democratic Party
$2,989 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Andy Biggs’s retirement to run for governor, has positioned Republicans as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the November 2026 general election. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 80.5 percent implied probability, reinforced by a competitive GOP primary featuring Trump-endorsed Mark Lamb and other established candidates ahead of the July 21 contest. Democrats have fielded multiple primary contenders, yet the seat’s structural Republican advantage and absence of recent polling shifts that would narrow the gap limit their prospects to the 13.5 percent range. Upcoming primary outcomes and any late shifts in candidate strength remain the primary variables that could adjust market pricing before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$10,050종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Andy Biggs’s retirement to run for governor, has positioned Republicans as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the November 2026 general election. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 80.5 percent implied probability, reinforced by a competitive GOP primary featuring Trump-endorsed Mark Lamb and other established candidates ahead of the July 21 contest. Democrats have fielded multiple primary contenders, yet the seat’s structural Republican advantage and absence of recent polling shifts that would narrow the gap limit their prospects to the 13.5 percent range. Upcoming primary outcomes and any late shifts in candidate strength remain the primary variables that could adjust market pricing before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$10,050종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Arizona’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Andy Biggs’s retirement to run for governor, has positioned Republicans as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the November 2026 general election. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 80.5 percent implied probability, reinforced by a competitive GOP primary featuring Trump-endorsed Mark Lamb and other established candidates ahead of the July 21 contest. Democrats have fielded multiple primary contenders, yet the seat’s structural Republican advantage and absence of recent polling shifts that would narrow the gap limit their prospects to the 13.5 percent range. Upcoming primary outcomes and any late shifts in candidate strength remain the primary variables that could adjust market pricing before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문