The open seat in Louisiana’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Republican Julia Letlow’s January 2026 decision to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, has solidified Republican advantages in trader pricing. The district’s R+18 partisan lean, rural northeastern and central Louisiana voter base, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles underpin the 87.5% implied probability for a GOP nominee. Recent developments, including postponed May primaries, a crowded field of seven Republican candidates, and President Trump’s endorsement of state Senator Blake Miguez, have reinforced this positioning without altering the underlying electoral math. Democratic contenders remain limited by the district’s structural composition, keeping their odds near 10.5% ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
11%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$2,100 거래량
88%
Democratic Party
$2,458 거래량
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Louisiana’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Republican Julia Letlow’s January 2026 decision to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, has solidified Republican advantages in trader pricing. The district’s R+18 partisan lean, rural northeastern and central Louisiana voter base, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles underpin the 87.5% implied probability for a GOP nominee. Recent developments, including postponed May primaries, a crowded field of seven Republican candidates, and President Trump’s endorsement of state Senator Blake Miguez, have reinforced this positioning without altering the underlying electoral math. Democratic contenders remain limited by the district’s structural composition, keeping their odds near 10.5% ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$4,558종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Louisiana’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Republican Julia Letlow’s January 2026 decision to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, has solidified Republican advantages in trader pricing. The district’s R+18 partisan lean, rural northeastern and central Louisiana voter base, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles underpin the 87.5% implied probability for a GOP nominee. Recent developments, including postponed May primaries, a crowded field of seven Republican candidates, and President Trump’s endorsement of state Senator Blake Miguez, have reinforced this positioning without altering the underlying electoral math. Democratic contenders remain limited by the district’s structural composition, keeping their odds near 10.5% ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$4,558종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Louisiana’s 5th congressional district, created by incumbent Republican Julia Letlow’s January 2026 decision to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, has solidified Republican advantages in trader pricing. The district’s R+18 partisan lean, rural northeastern and central Louisiana voter base, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles underpin the 87.5% implied probability for a GOP nominee. Recent developments, including postponed May primaries, a crowded field of seven Republican candidates, and President Trump’s endorsement of state Senator Blake Miguez, have reinforced this positioning without altering the underlying electoral math. Democratic contenders remain limited by the district’s structural composition, keeping their odds near 10.5% ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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