The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic nominee. Donna Miller secured the Democratic primary in March 2026 with 40.4% of the vote in an open seat previously held by retiring Rep. Robin Kelly. The Republican nominee, Mike Noack, and an independent face structural barriers in a district spanning southeast Chicago and southern suburbs where Democratic performance has exceeded national averages by wide margins in recent cycles. A national political realignment, major candidate-specific development, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate limited realistic pathways to an upset.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$30,932 거래량
$30,932 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
4%
$30,932 거래량
$30,932 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$12,427 거래량
95%
공화당
$18,505 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic nominee. Donna Miller secured the Democratic primary in March 2026 with 40.4% of the vote in an open seat previously held by retiring Rep. Robin Kelly. The Republican nominee, Mike Noack, and an independent face structural barriers in a district spanning southeast Chicago and southern suburbs where Democratic performance has exceeded national averages by wide margins in recent cycles. A national political realignment, major candidate-specific development, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate limited realistic pathways to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$30,932종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic nominee. Donna Miller secured the Democratic primary in March 2026 with 40.4% of the vote in an open seat previously held by retiring Rep. Robin Kelly. The Republican nominee, Mike Noack, and an independent face structural barriers in a district spanning southeast Chicago and southern suburbs where Democratic performance has exceeded national averages by wide margins in recent cycles. A national political realignment, major candidate-specific development, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate limited realistic pathways to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$30,932종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic nominee. Donna Miller secured the Democratic primary in March 2026 with 40.4% of the vote in an open seat previously held by retiring Rep. Robin Kelly. The Republican nominee, Mike Noack, and an independent face structural barriers in a district spanning southeast Chicago and southern suburbs where Democratic performance has exceeded national averages by wide margins in recent cycles. A national political realignment, major candidate-specific development, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate limited realistic pathways to an upset.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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