The open seat in Illinois’s 2nd Congressional District, vacated by longtime Representative Robin Kelly, has produced a strong Democratic frontrunner after the March 17 primary. Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller secured the nomination with roughly 40 percent of the vote in a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr., consolidating party support in a district that has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces limited resources and no competitive primary contest, leaving the general election on November 3 largely uncontested by organized opposition. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, with Democratic victory probabilities near 95 percent. Shifts could occur from an unusually strong national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate controversies, or unusually high independent turnout, though historical patterns in this South Side Chicago and suburban district make such reversals improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$30,930 거래량
$30,930 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
5%
$30,930 거래량
$30,930 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$12,425 거래량
95%
공화당
$18,505 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Illinois’s 2nd Congressional District, vacated by longtime Representative Robin Kelly, has produced a strong Democratic frontrunner after the March 17 primary. Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller secured the nomination with roughly 40 percent of the vote in a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr., consolidating party support in a district that has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces limited resources and no competitive primary contest, leaving the general election on November 3 largely uncontested by organized opposition. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, with Democratic victory probabilities near 95 percent. Shifts could occur from an unusually strong national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate controversies, or unusually high independent turnout, though historical patterns in this South Side Chicago and suburban district make such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$30,930종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Illinois’s 2nd Congressional District, vacated by longtime Representative Robin Kelly, has produced a strong Democratic frontrunner after the March 17 primary. Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller secured the nomination with roughly 40 percent of the vote in a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr., consolidating party support in a district that has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces limited resources and no competitive primary contest, leaving the general election on November 3 largely uncontested by organized opposition. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, with Democratic victory probabilities near 95 percent. Shifts could occur from an unusually strong national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate controversies, or unusually high independent turnout, though historical patterns in this South Side Chicago and suburban district make such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$30,930종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Illinois’s 2nd Congressional District, vacated by longtime Representative Robin Kelly, has produced a strong Democratic frontrunner after the March 17 primary. Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller secured the nomination with roughly 40 percent of the vote in a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr., consolidating party support in a district that has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces limited resources and no competitive primary contest, leaving the general election on November 3 largely uncontested by organized opposition. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, with Democratic victory probabilities near 95 percent. Shifts could occur from an unusually strong national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate controversies, or unusually high independent turnout, though historical patterns in this South Side Chicago and suburban district make such reversals improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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