Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock's dominant history in California's 5th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others with a Trump +18 lean from 2024, drives trader consensus to an 83% implied probability of a GOP hold. McClintock won 62% in the 2024 general amid minimal opposition, and the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features a fragmented Democratic field—Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud—unlikely to advance two challengers past the veteran Republican. Late April speculation of a primary clash with Rep. Kevin Kiley, displaced by Prop 50 redistricting, briefly dropped odds to 65% on low-volume trading but has since recovered without confirmation. Club for Growth's February endorsement further solidifies McClintock ahead of the general election on November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
17%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$3,859 거래량
83%
Democratic Party
$1,478 거래량
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock's dominant history in California's 5th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others with a Trump +18 lean from 2024, drives trader consensus to an 83% implied probability of a GOP hold. McClintock won 62% in the 2024 general amid minimal opposition, and the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features a fragmented Democratic field—Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud—unlikely to advance two challengers past the veteran Republican. Late April speculation of a primary clash with Rep. Kevin Kiley, displaced by Prop 50 redistricting, briefly dropped odds to 65% on low-volume trading but has since recovered without confirmation. Club for Growth's February endorsement further solidifies McClintock ahead of the general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$5,337종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock's dominant history in California's 5th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others with a Trump +18 lean from 2024, drives trader consensus to an 83% implied probability of a GOP hold. McClintock won 62% in the 2024 general amid minimal opposition, and the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features a fragmented Democratic field—Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud—unlikely to advance two challengers past the veteran Republican. Late April speculation of a primary clash with Rep. Kevin Kiley, displaced by Prop 50 redistricting, briefly dropped odds to 65% on low-volume trading but has since recovered without confirmation. Club for Growth's February endorsement further solidifies McClintock ahead of the general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$5,337종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock's dominant history in California's 5th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others with a Trump +18 lean from 2024, drives trader consensus to an 83% implied probability of a GOP hold. McClintock won 62% in the 2024 general amid minimal opposition, and the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features a fragmented Democratic field—Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud—unlikely to advance two challengers past the veteran Republican. Late April speculation of a primary clash with Rep. Kevin Kiley, displaced by Prop 50 redistricting, briefly dropped odds to 65% on low-volume trading but has since recovered without confirmation. Club for Growth's February endorsement further solidifies McClintock ahead of the general election on November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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