Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson, a moderate Blue Dog Democrat holding California's 4th Congressional District for 28 years, leads trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in the November general election, driven by California's top-two primary system and a crowded Republican field of six candidates fragmenting votes ahead of the June 2 contest. Recent escalations, including challenger Eric Jones's accusations via a secret recording and mutual attack ads, highlight intra-Democratic competition but reinforce expectations that Thompson and Jones will claim the top two spots in the D+8 district, guaranteeing a Democrat-vs-Democrat general. A Republican upset in the primary via vote consolidation remains the primary scenario to challenge this outcome, though fundraising and historical patterns favor incumbency.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$625 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$302 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson, a moderate Blue Dog Democrat holding California's 4th Congressional District for 28 years, leads trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in the November general election, driven by California's top-two primary system and a crowded Republican field of six candidates fragmenting votes ahead of the June 2 contest. Recent escalations, including challenger Eric Jones's accusations via a secret recording and mutual attack ads, highlight intra-Democratic competition but reinforce expectations that Thompson and Jones will claim the top two spots in the D+8 district, guaranteeing a Democrat-vs-Democrat general. A Republican upset in the primary via vote consolidation remains the primary scenario to challenge this outcome, though fundraising and historical patterns favor incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$927종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson, a moderate Blue Dog Democrat holding California's 4th Congressional District for 28 years, leads trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in the November general election, driven by California's top-two primary system and a crowded Republican field of six candidates fragmenting votes ahead of the June 2 contest. Recent escalations, including challenger Eric Jones's accusations via a secret recording and mutual attack ads, highlight intra-Democratic competition but reinforce expectations that Thompson and Jones will claim the top two spots in the D+8 district, guaranteeing a Democrat-vs-Democrat general. A Republican upset in the primary via vote consolidation remains the primary scenario to challenge this outcome, though fundraising and historical patterns favor incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$927종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson, a moderate Blue Dog Democrat holding California's 4th Congressional District for 28 years, leads trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in the November general election, driven by California's top-two primary system and a crowded Republican field of six candidates fragmenting votes ahead of the June 2 contest. Recent escalations, including challenger Eric Jones's accusations via a secret recording and mutual attack ads, highlight intra-Democratic competition but reinforce expectations that Thompson and Jones will claim the top two spots in the D+8 district, guaranteeing a Democrat-vs-Democrat general. A Republican upset in the primary via vote consolidation remains the primary scenario to challenge this outcome, though fundraising and historical patterns favor incumbency.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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