Incumbent Rep. John Garamendi's (D) dominant position in solidly Democratic CA-08 underpins trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic Party win, reflecting the district's partisan lean—Kamala Harris carried it 65%-32% in 2024—and Garamendi's 74% victory over the same Republican challenger, Rudy Recile, last cycle. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Garamendi holds $1.26 million cash-on-hand versus minimal funds for primary rivals Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden (both D) and Recile (R); recent April fundraising reports and mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 affirm the seat's safe status. Upsets could arise from a Garamendi scandal, health event, or extraordinary GOP midterm wave propelling Recile, though historical incumbent reelection rates in such districts exceed 95%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,966 거래량
$11,966 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$11,966 거래량
$11,966 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$5,698 거래량
93%
공화당
$6,269 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. John Garamendi's (D) dominant position in solidly Democratic CA-08 underpins trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic Party win, reflecting the district's partisan lean—Kamala Harris carried it 65%-32% in 2024—and Garamendi's 74% victory over the same Republican challenger, Rudy Recile, last cycle. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Garamendi holds $1.26 million cash-on-hand versus minimal funds for primary rivals Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden (both D) and Recile (R); recent April fundraising reports and mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 affirm the seat's safe status. Upsets could arise from a Garamendi scandal, health event, or extraordinary GOP midterm wave propelling Recile, though historical incumbent reelection rates in such districts exceed 95%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$11,966종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. John Garamendi's (D) dominant position in solidly Democratic CA-08 underpins trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic Party win, reflecting the district's partisan lean—Kamala Harris carried it 65%-32% in 2024—and Garamendi's 74% victory over the same Republican challenger, Rudy Recile, last cycle. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Garamendi holds $1.26 million cash-on-hand versus minimal funds for primary rivals Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden (both D) and Recile (R); recent April fundraising reports and mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 affirm the seat's safe status. Upsets could arise from a Garamendi scandal, health event, or extraordinary GOP midterm wave propelling Recile, though historical incumbent reelection rates in such districts exceed 95%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$11,966종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. John Garamendi's (D) dominant position in solidly Democratic CA-08 underpins trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic Party win, reflecting the district's partisan lean—Kamala Harris carried it 65%-32% in 2024—and Garamendi's 74% victory over the same Republican challenger, Rudy Recile, last cycle. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Garamendi holds $1.26 million cash-on-hand versus minimal funds for primary rivals Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden (both D) and Recile (R); recent April fundraising reports and mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 affirm the seat's safe status. Upsets could arise from a Garamendi scandal, health event, or extraordinary GOP midterm wave propelling Recile, though historical incumbent reelection rates in such districts exceed 95%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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