Traders heavily favor OpenAI with around 50% implied probability to hold the #1 AI model by June 30, 2025, on leaderboards like LMSYS Chatbot Arena, driven by its historical dominance and whispers of a GPT-5 release in H1 2025 amid partnerships with Microsoft. Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet currently tops the charts at 1350+ Elo, but traders discount it due to scaling constraints versus OpenAI's compute edge; Google DeepMind sits at 25% odds post-Gemini 2.0 Flash previews, while xAI's Grok-3 ambitions via Memphis supercluster trail at 10%. Key catalysts include OpenAI's December DevDay and potential regulatory scrutiny on model safety, with benchmarks fluctuating weekly on rapid iterations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,142,458 Vol.

OpenAI
27%

xAI
14%

DeepSeek
8%

Z.ai
7%

アリババ
6%

Meta
6%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
3%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%
$1,142,458 Vol.

OpenAI
27%

xAI
14%

DeepSeek
8%

Z.ai
7%

アリババ
6%

Meta
6%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
3%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders heavily favor OpenAI with around 50% implied probability to hold the #1 AI model by June 30, 2025, on leaderboards like LMSYS Chatbot Arena, driven by its historical dominance and whispers of a GPT-5 release in H1 2025 amid partnerships with Microsoft. Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet currently tops the charts at 1350+ Elo, but traders discount it due to scaling constraints versus OpenAI's compute edge; Google DeepMind sits at 25% odds post-Gemini 2.0 Flash previews, while xAI's Grok-3 ambitions via Memphis supercluster trail at 10%. Key catalysts include OpenAI's December DevDay and potential regulatory scrutiny on model safety, with benchmarks fluctuating weekly on rapid iterations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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