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地政学·トランプ

ケビン・ウォーシュが確認される前に何が起こるでしょうか？

Market icon
地政学·トランプ

ケビン・ウォーシュが確認される前に何が起こるでしょうか？

$71,295 Vol.

Oct 31, 2026
Polymarket

$71,295 Vol.

Polymarket
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米国とイランの停戦

$43,013 Vol.

53%

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FRB利下げ

$0 Vol.

6%

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米国がエイリアンの存在を認める

$28,282 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another. If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell after his May 15 term ends remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to a hold by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). Tillis is blocking advancement until the DOJ resolves its investigation into Powell's oversight of a $2.5 billion Fed headquarters renovation project, creating a procedural impasse amid rising inflation, oil price shocks from the Iran conflict, and market volatility. Powell has vowed to remain in his role post-term as a holdover governor, potentially chairing meetings. Traders monitor DOJ probe outcomes, White House-Senate negotiations, and a possible confirmation hearing, weighing geopolitical de-escalation or Fed policy shifts as potential catalysts before resolution.

President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell after his May 15 term ends remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to a hold by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). Tillis is blocking advancement until the DOJ resolves its investigation into Powell's oversight of a $2.5 billion Fed headquarters renovation project, creating a procedural impasse amid rising inflation, oil price shocks from the Iran conflict, and market volatility. Powell has vowed to remain in his role post-term as a holdover governor, potentially chairing meetings. Traders monitor DOJ probe outcomes, White House-Senate negotiations, and a possible confirmation hearing, weighing geopolitical de-escalation or Fed policy shifts as potential catalysts before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another. If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell after his May 15 term ends remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to a hold by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). Tillis is blocking advancement until the DOJ resolves its investigation into Powell's oversight of a $2.5 billion Fed headquarters renovation project, creating a procedural impasse amid rising inflation, oil price shocks from the Iran conflict, and market volatility. Powell has vowed to remain in his role post-term as a holdover governor, potentially chairing meetings. Traders monitor DOJ probe outcomes, White House-Senate negotiations, and a possible confirmation hearing, weighing geopolitical de-escalation or Fed policy shifts as potential catalysts before resolution.

President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell after his May 15 term ends remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to a hold by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). Tillis is blocking advancement until the DOJ resolves its investigation into Powell's oversight of a $2.5 billion Fed headquarters renovation project, creating a procedural impasse amid rising inflation, oil price shocks from the Iran conflict, and market volatility. Powell has vowed to remain in his role post-term as a holdover governor, potentially chairing meetings. Traders monitor DOJ probe outcomes, White House-Senate negotiations, and a possible confirmation hearing, weighing geopolitical de-escalation or Fed policy shifts as potential catalysts before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ケビン・ウォーシュが確認される前に何が起こるでしょうか？」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イランの新しい最高指導者」で100%、次いで「米国とイランの停戦」が53%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ケビン・ウォーシュが確認される前に何が起こるでしょうか？」は$71.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 4, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ケビン・ウォーシュが確認される前に何が起こるでしょうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ケビン・ウォーシュが確認される前に何が起こるでしょうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「イランの新しい最高指導者」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「米国とイランの停戦」で53%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ケビン・ウォーシュが確認される前に何が起こるでしょうか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。