Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the Legislative Yuan's composition, where the opposition Kuomintang (KMT, 52 seats) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP, 8 seats) hold only 60 of 113 total seats—far short of the constitutional three-fourths supermajority (85 votes) required to pass an impeachment resolution after proposal by one-fourth of legislators. Symbolic motions passed in December 2025 initiated hearings, which occurred in January 2026 amid clashes over fiscal laws and Lai's attendance, but yielded no advancement toward a vote amid ongoing partisan deadlock. Absent major scandals, DPP defections, or snap elections altering seat counts, procedural barriers render success improbable before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
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Jun 30, 2026
はい
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the Legislative Yuan's composition, where the opposition Kuomintang (KMT, 52 seats) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP, 8 seats) hold only 60 of 113 total seats—far short of the constitutional three-fourths supermajority (85 votes) required to pass an impeachment resolution after proposal by one-fourth of legislators. Symbolic motions passed in December 2025 initiated hearings, which occurred in January 2026 amid clashes over fiscal laws and Lai's attendance, but yielded no advancement toward a vote amid ongoing partisan deadlock. Absent major scandals, DPP defections, or snap elections altering seat counts, procedural barriers render success improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the Legislative Yuan's composition, where the opposition Kuomintang (KMT, 52 seats) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP, 8 seats) hold only 60 of 113 total seats—far short of the constitutional three-fourths supermajority (85 votes) required to pass an impeachment resolution after proposal by one-fourth of legislators. Symbolic motions passed in December 2025 initiated hearings, which occurred in January 2026 amid clashes over fiscal laws and Lai's attendance, but yielded no advancement toward a vote amid ongoing partisan deadlock. Absent major scandals, DPP defections, or snap elections altering seat counts, procedural barriers render success improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
音量
$0終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the Legislative Yuan's composition, where the opposition Kuomintang (KMT, 52 seats) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP, 8 seats) hold only 60 of 113 total seats—far short of the constitutional three-fourths supermajority (85 votes) required to pass an impeachment resolution after proposal by one-fourth of legislators. Symbolic motions passed in December 2025 initiated hearings, which occurred in January 2026 amid clashes over fiscal laws and Lai's attendance, but yielded no advancement toward a vote amid ongoing partisan deadlock. Absent major scandals, DPP defections, or snap elections altering seat counts, procedural barriers render success improbable before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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