Google DeepMind's AlphaProof achieving silver medal performance at the 2024 International Mathematical Olympiad—solving four of six problems via combined reinforcement learning and language model reasoning—has driven the 57.5% yes probability for an AI gold in 2026. This breakthrough highlights rapid gains in automated theorem proving, building on tools like Lean for formal verification, yet underscores gaps in creative proof invention needed for gold's top-percentile scores. Traders weigh scaling laws favoring two-year iteration amid rivals like OpenAI's o1-preview math boosts, against IMO's handcrafted difficulty spikes and unofficial AI scoring precedents. Catalysts: 2025 IMO outcomes and model release cycles could shift odds decisively.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
音量
$3,009終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
音量
$3,009終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google DeepMind's AlphaProof achieving silver medal performance at the 2024 International Mathematical Olympiad—solving four of six problems via combined reinforcement learning and language model reasoning—has driven the 57.5% yes probability for an AI gold in 2026. This breakthrough highlights rapid gains in automated theorem proving, building on tools like Lean for formal verification, yet underscores gaps in creative proof invention needed for gold's top-percentile scores. Traders weigh scaling laws favoring two-year iteration amid rivals like OpenAI's o1-preview math boosts, against IMO's handcrafted difficulty spikes and unofficial AI scoring precedents. Catalysts: 2025 IMO outcomes and model release cycles could shift odds decisively.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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