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Politics·Trump Presidency

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Market icon
Politics·Trump Presidency

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$2,957 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 44%

$2,445 Vol.

12%

↑ 45%

$0 Vol.

12%

↑ 46%

$512 Vol.

9%

↑ 47%

$0 Vol.

5%

↑ 48%

$0 Vol.

7%

↑ 49%

$0 Vol.

4%

↑ 50%

$0 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating fell below 40% for the first time in his second term as of early April 2026, driving trader consensus toward a low peak for the year, with probabilities below 15% for hitting 44% or higher on Polymarket. This positioning reflects recent declines fueled by the Iran war escalation, gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon for the first time in four years, rising mortgage rates, high inflation, and a partial government shutdown, which have cratered economic net approval to -23. Stronger disapproval intensity among independents and even Republicans underscores barriers to rebound. Upcoming 2026 midterm elections in November and potential diplomatic or fiscal resolutions could shift dynamics, though entrenched headwinds sustain skepticism.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Volume
$2,957
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating fell below 40% for the first time in his second term as of early April 2026, driving trader consensus toward a low peak for the year, with probabilities below 15% for hitting 44% or higher on Polymarket. This positioning reflects recent declines fueled by the Iran war escalation, gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon for the first time in four years, rising mortgage rates, high inflation, and a partial government shutdown, which have cratered economic net approval to -23. Stronger disapproval intensity among independents and even Republicans underscores barriers to rebound. Upcoming 2026 midterm elections in November and potential diplomatic or fiscal resolutions could shift dynamics, though entrenched headwinds sustain skepticism.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Volume
$2,957
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ 44%" at 12%, followed by "↑ 45%" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 12¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 12, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" is "↑ 44%" at 12%, meaning the market assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ 45%" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.