Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 56°F or higher in Seattle on March 16 at 77.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting upper 50s amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge ushering warm air advection from the California interior. Seattle's March climatological average high hovers around 55°F, but current upper-air patterns—confirmed by recent GFS and ECMWF model runs—feature southerly flow overriding typical cool marine layers, positioning 54-55°F (18.5%) as the next likely bin. Ensemble forecasts have trended 1-2°F warmer since yesterday, reducing odds for cooler 52-53°F outcomes (2.5%); watch for afternoon updates as surface observations refine peak heating estimates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Seattle le 16 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Seattle le 16 mars ?
54-55°F 100.0%
37°F ou moins <1%
38-39°F <1%
40-41 °F <1%
$84,713 Vol.
$84,713 Vol.
37°F ou moins
Non
38-39°F
Non
40-41 °F
Non
42-43°F
Non
44-45°F
Non
46-47°F
Non
48-49°F
Non
50-51°F
Non
52-53°F
Non
54-55°F
Oui
56°F ou plus
Non
54-55°F 100.0%
37°F ou moins <1%
38-39°F <1%
40-41 °F <1%
$84,713 Vol.
$84,713 Vol.
37°F ou moins
Non
38-39°F
Non
40-41 °F
Non
42-43°F
Non
44-45°F
Non
46-47°F
Non
48-49°F
Non
50-51°F
Non
52-53°F
Non
54-55°F
Oui
56°F ou plus
Non
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 56°F or higher in Seattle on March 16 at 77.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting upper 50s amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge ushering warm air advection from the California interior. Seattle's March climatological average high hovers around 55°F, but current upper-air patterns—confirmed by recent GFS and ECMWF model runs—feature southerly flow overriding typical cool marine layers, positioning 54-55°F (18.5%) as the next likely bin. Ensemble forecasts have trended 1-2°F warmer since yesterday, reducing odds for cooler 52-53°F outcomes (2.5%); watch for afternoon updates as surface observations refine peak heating estimates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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