Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Bank of Brazil's March 19-20 Copom meeting, propelled by the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 10.50% in early February amid cooling inflation—December IPCA rose just 0.56% monthly and 4.62% annually, hugging the 3%±1.5% target midpoint. Robust 2.9% GDP growth in 2023 and improving fiscal dynamics bolster expectations for continued easing to support recovery without overheating. This positioning could face reversal from upside inflation surprises in services or food, renewed global risk aversion weakening the real, or hawkish Copom rhetoric signaling pause.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque du Brésil en mars ?
Décision de la Banque du Brésil en mars ?
Baisse 100.0%
Augmentation <1%
Pas de changement <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Augmentation
Non
Pas de changement
Non
Baisse
Oui
Baisse 100.0%
Augmentation <1%
Pas de changement <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Augmentation
Non
Pas de changement
Non
Baisse
Oui
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its March 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for March 16-17, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its March 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for March 16-17, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Bank of Brazil's March 19-20 Copom meeting, propelled by the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 10.50% in early February amid cooling inflation—December IPCA rose just 0.56% monthly and 4.62% annually, hugging the 3%±1.5% target midpoint. Robust 2.9% GDP growth in 2023 and improving fiscal dynamics bolster expectations for continued easing to support recovery without overheating. This positioning could face reversal from upside inflation surprises in services or food, renewed global risk aversion weakening the real, or hawkish Copom rhetoric signaling pause.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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