Name: Yoon reinstated as President before July?
Start: 2025-02-10T22:17:44.683754Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yoon Suk Yeol is reinstated as President of South Korea by June 30, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

 If the Constitutional Court upholds his impeachment, or he is otherwise permanently removed from office, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify as reinstated, Yoon must officially regain his presidential powers and no longer be suspended from office.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Government of South Korea, specifically the Constitutional Court, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Yoon reinstated as President before July?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case including the charge of leading an insurrection will count. Sentences rendered for separate cases (e.g. Yoon Suk Yeol’s trial on charges of benefiting the enemy related to drone flights over North Korea) will not count. If the insurrection case is formally consolidated with other cases into a single judgment, this market will resolve based on the total sentence issued for this consolidated case.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Yoon Suk Yeol is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Yoon Suk Yeol is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of failure to promulgate legislation, obstruction of constitutional processes, or other criminal acts stemming from his actions as Acting President and Prime Minister by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Han Duck-soo's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck-soo be sentenced to prison before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jun-seok serves any time in custody in any prison between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Lai Ching-te impeached before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jang Dong-hyeok ceases to be the Leader of the People Power Party (PPP) for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Jang Dong-hyeok’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the People Power Party or the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?

Former South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is scheduled to be sentenced on January 21, 2026 in his criminal case including charges of aiding an insurrection and perjury, among other charges, related to his involvement in Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-special-prosecutor-seeks-15-year-jail-term-ex-pm-han-martial-law-2025-11-26/.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in this martial-law related criminal trial by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Han Duck-soo is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Han Duck-soo is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

If no sentencing takes place by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

It does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Han Duck-soo is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hwang Kyo-ahn in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the South Korean government officially designates Sejong as the national capital by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Designation must come through the passage of a constitutional amendment that names Sejong as the capital.

Other actions that legally and officially make Sejong the capital of South Korea under South Korean law will qualify only if they remain legally valid through the resolution date without being overturned, blocked, or declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will South Korea move its capital to Sejong in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indonesia president, Prabowo Subianto, is removed from power for any length of time between September 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Prabowo Subianto will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Indonesia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Subianto out as president of Indonesia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 24, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility such as the Seoul Detention Center while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31?

The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon. 

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chungin (Roy) Lee serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 9 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cluely CEO Roy Lee in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan's Premier, Cho Jung-tai, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Premier Cho Jung-tai will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as Premier, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Premier within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Joseph Aoun will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Lebanon within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31, 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Yoon reinstated as President before July?

Market Context

Yoon reinstated as President before July?

Rules

Yoon reinstated as President before July?

Market Context

Yoon reinstated as President before July?

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