Market icon
Finance·Indicies

Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?

Market icon
Finance·Indicies

Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?

NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$3,608 Vol.

Polymarket

4500

$2,388 Vol.

99%

4750

$0 Vol.

98%

5000

$0 Vol.

83%

5250

$0 Vol.

80%

5500

$172 Vol.

50%

5750

$0 Vol.

50%

6000

$806 Vol.

22%

6500

$0 Vol.

3%

7000

$242 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. The closing price for the final day of trading on or before this date will be used to resolve this market. If the final trading day of the quarter is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/history/, published under "Historical Data."The KOSPI index closed at 5,438.87 on March 27, down 0.40% amid lingering Middle East tensions that have fueled extreme volatility, including a record 12.06% plunge to 5,093.54 on March 4 due to Iran conflict fears, followed by a 9.63% rebound to 5,583 the next day. Tech-heavy composition, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix comprising ~40% weighting, amplifies swings from global chip demand and energy shocks, while hedge fund selling in emerging Asia adds pressure. With just the March 28 and 31 trading sessions before Q1 resolution, trader consensus on Polymarket hinges on de-escalation signals or oil stabilization; Goldman Sachs' year-end target remains 7,000, signaling long-term optimism despite near-term risks.

The KOSPI index closed at 5,438.87 on March 27, down 0.40% amid lingering Middle East tensions that have fueled extreme volatility, including a record 12.06% plunge to 5,093.54 on March 4 due to Iran conflict fears, followed by a 9.63% rebound to 5,583 the next day. Tech-heavy composition, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix comprising ~40% weighting, amplifies swings from global chip demand and energy shocks, while hedge fund selling in emerging Asia adds pressure. With just the March 28 and 31 trading sessions before Q1 resolution, trader consensus on Polymarket hinges on de-escalation signals or oil stabilization; Goldman Sachs' year-end target remains 7,000, signaling long-term optimism despite near-term risks.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. The closing price for the final day of trading on or before this date will be used to resolve this market. If the final trading day of the quarter is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/history/, published under "Historical Data."The KOSPI index closed at 5,438.87 on March 27, down 0.40% amid lingering Middle East tensions that have fueled extreme volatility, including a record 12.06% plunge to 5,093.54 on March 4 due to Iran conflict fears, followed by a 9.63% rebound to 5,583 the next day. Tech-heavy composition, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix comprising ~40% weighting, amplifies swings from global chip demand and energy shocks, while hedge fund selling in emerging Asia adds pressure. With just the March 28 and 31 trading sessions before Q1 resolution, trader consensus on Polymarket hinges on de-escalation signals or oil stabilization; Goldman Sachs' year-end target remains 7,000, signaling long-term optimism despite near-term risks.

The KOSPI index closed at 5,438.87 on March 27, down 0.40% amid lingering Middle East tensions that have fueled extreme volatility, including a record 12.06% plunge to 5,093.54 on March 4 due to Iran conflict fears, followed by a 9.63% rebound to 5,583 the next day. Tech-heavy composition, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix comprising ~40% weighting, amplifies swings from global chip demand and energy shocks, while hedge fund selling in emerging Asia adds pressure. With just the March 28 and 31 trading sessions before Q1 resolution, trader consensus on Polymarket hinges on de-escalation signals or oil stabilization; Goldman Sachs' year-end target remains 7,000, signaling long-term optimism despite near-term risks.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4500" at 99%, followed by "4750" at 98%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?" is "4500" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4750" at 98%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.