The USD/KRW exchange rate, recently trading near 1,357, reflects a tug-of-war between U.S. monetary tightening and Korea’s export-driven fundamentals. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications and elevated Treasury yields have supported the dollar, widening the policy rate differential with the Bank of Korea and contributing to recent volatility around the 1,340–1,390 range. Counterbalancing forces include robust semiconductor export growth—boosted by AI demand and major fab investments—which has generated dollar inflows and prompted exporter selling. Yen strength, declining oil prices, and Korea’s upcoming WGBI inclusion have also aided won resilience. Traders are monitoring upcoming FOMC decisions, BOK policy meetings, and September–October export data for clues on whether the pair tests higher thresholds or sustains its recent softening bias through year-end.