**As of early October 2026, USD/KRW trades near 1,340 after declining sharply from mid-year highs above 1,550, driven primarily by Korea’s record semiconductor export surge and associated dollar supply.** Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix capital expenditures, combined with a current-account surplus exceeding 10% of GDP, have generated substantial KRW demand through exporter conversions and domestic investment flows. This structural support has outweighed periodic dollar strength tied to Fed policy expectations, with the federal funds rate path and Treasury yields near multi-year highs capping further appreciation. Recent weak U.S. employment data and softer oil prices have aided the won, while importer settlement demand and foreign equity outflows provide a near-term floor. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meeting, Bank of Korea policy signals, and monthly trade and current-account releases that will shape supply-demand dynamics through year-end.