Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

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Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?

Market icon

Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?

$394,615 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$394,615 Vol.

Polymarket

January 31

$136,586 Vol.

Yes

March 31

$258,029 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration formally announces the establishment of the “Board of Peace” (or a clearly equivalent oversight board fulfilling the same role) by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, resolve “No.”

Only official policy announcements will qualify.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

A consensus of credible reporting confirming that the “Board of Peace” or equivalent Gaza oversight board has been established, includes U.S. participation and is operational will also qualify.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$394,615
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration formally announces the establishment of the “Board of Peace” (or a clearly equivalent oversight board fulfilling the same role) by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, resolve “No.” Only official policy announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. A consensus of credible reporting confirming that the “Board of Peace” or equivalent Gaza oversight board has been established, includes U.S. participation and is operational will also qualify. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "January 31" at 100%, followed by "March 31" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?" has generated $394.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?" is "January 31" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.