Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2025-08-05T17:33:33.863763Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

$144,219,236 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Hassett 41%

Kevin Warsh 40%

Christopher Waller 10.8%

Rick Rieder 4.9%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Hassett
$8,137,733 Vol.
41%
0123456789
%

Kevin Warsh
$4,002,812 Vol.
40%
0123456789
%

Christopher Waller
$3,296,820 Vol.
11%
0123456789
%

Rick Rieder
$2,444,717 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

Michelle Bowman
$2,802,586 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Scott Bessent
$3,271,412 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Judy Shelton
$3,550,152 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

No one nominated before 2027
$1,779,971 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

David Malpass
$2,237,143 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Jerome Powell
$2,828,683 Vol.
<1%

Stephen Miran
$2,782,337 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Bill Pulte
$11,955,458 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,261,212 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Arthur Laffer
$7,800,319 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,758,342 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Ron Paul
$4,182,301 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,688,547 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,288,945 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$1,915,823 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,866,074 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,524,985 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$19,397,123 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$4,993,615 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$14,758,653 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$20,688,464 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Volume

$144,219,236

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$144,219,236 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Hassett 41%

Kevin Warsh 40%

Christopher Waller 10.8%

Rick Rieder 4.9%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Hassett

$8,137,733 Vol.

41%

Kevin Warsh

$4,002,812 Vol.

40%

Christopher Waller

$3,296,820 Vol.

11%

Rick Rieder

$2,444,717 Vol.

Michelle Bowman

$2,802,586 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$3,271,412 Vol.

Judy Shelton

$3,550,152 Vol.

No one nominated before 2027

$1,779,971 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$2,237,143 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$2,828,683 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$2,782,337 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$11,955,458 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,261,212 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$7,800,319 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$9,758,342 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$4,182,301 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$1,688,547 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$2,288,945 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$1,915,823 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$1,866,074 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$4,524,985 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$19,397,123 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$4,993,615 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$14,758,653 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$20,688,464 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$144,219,236

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

24%

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

99%

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Hassett
$8,137,733 Vol.
41%
0123456789
%

Kevin Warsh
$4,002,812 Vol.
40%
0123456789
%

Christopher Waller
$3,296,820 Vol.
11%
0123456789
%

Rick Rieder
$2,444,717 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

Michelle Bowman
$2,802,586 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Scott Bessent
$3,271,412 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Judy Shelton
$3,550,152 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

No one nominated before 2027
$1,779,971 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

David Malpass
$2,237,143 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Jerome Powell
$2,828,683 Vol.
<1%

Stephen Miran
$2,782,337 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Bill Pulte
$11,955,458 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,261,212 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Arthur Laffer
$7,800,319 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,758,342 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Ron Paul
$4,182,301 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,688,547 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,288,945 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$1,915,823 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,866,074 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,524,985 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$19,397,123 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$4,993,615 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$14,758,653 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$20,688,464 Vol.
<1%

Market Context