Politics·Senate

Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?

Politics·Senate

Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?

Gentner Drummond <1%

Matt Pinnell <1%

Kevin Hern <1%

Stephanie Bice <1%

$130,571 Vol.

$130,571 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Gentner Drummond

$13,060 Vol.

No

Matt Pinnell

$30,869 Vol.

No

Kevin Hern

$12,471 Vol.

No

Stephanie Bice

$16,966 Vol.

No

Kevin Stitt

$11,364 Vol.

No

Charles McCall

$24,236 Vol.

No

Ryan Walters

$19,252 Vol.

No

None Before Midterm Election

$2,353 Vol.

No

Gentner Drummond <1%

Matt Pinnell <1%

Kevin Hern <1%

Stephanie Bice <1%

$130,571 Vol.

$130,571 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Gentner Drummond

$13,060 Vol.

No

Matt Pinnell

$30,869 Vol.

No

Kevin Hern

$12,471 Vol.

No

Stephanie Bice

$16,966 Vol.

No

Kevin Stitt

$11,364 Vol.

No

Charles McCall

$24,236 Vol.

No

Ryan Walters

$19,252 Vol.

No

None Before Midterm Election

$2,353 Vol.

No

On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security. This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma. Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count. If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.” Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Traders assign virtually all probability to "Other" as the outcome for replacing Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin, reflecting no credible developments signaling a Senate vacancy. Mullin, re-elected in 2022 with a term extending to 2028, continues active service, including recent committee work and public statements affirming his role, with zero reports of resignation or appointment to another position. Potential successors like Rep. Kevin Hern, House Speaker Charles McCall, AG Gentner Drummond, Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, or Rep. Stephanie Bice garner negligible odds absent a trigger event. Realistic challenges include a Trump administration nomination requiring resignation or unexpected personal departure, prompting Gov. Kevin Stitt's interim appointment ahead of a special election; however, no such catalysts have emerged.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 24, 2026, 7:04 PM UTC

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Beware of external links.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gentner Drummond" at 0%, followed by "Matt Pinnell" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" has generated $130.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" is "Gentner Drummond" at just 0%, with "Matt Pinnell" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $130.6K traded on “Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 0¢ for "Gentner Drummond" in the "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 0% chance that "Gentner Drummond" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 0¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 100¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" market has a growing discussion of 4 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

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