Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Name: Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Start: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Ended: Dec 31

Stephen Miran 100.0%

J.D. Vance <1%

Scott Bessent <1%

Pam Bondi <1%

$3,208,268 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

J.D. Vance
$110,819 Vol.
No

Scott Bessent
$61,829 Vol.
No

Pam Bondi
$450,324 Vol.
No

Brooke Rollins
$45,287 Vol.
No

Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$131,650 Vol.
No

Scott Turner
$137,970 Vol.
No

Chris Wright
$49,351 Vol.
No

Doug Collins
$134,704 Vol.
No

Lee Zeldin
$85,056 Vol.
No

Tulsi Gabbard
$82,861 Vol.
No

John Ratcliffe
$144,150 Vol.
No

Mike Waltz
$67,347 Vol.
No

Kelly Loeffler
$77,870 Vol.
No

None before 2027
$209,248 Vol.
No

Marco Rubio
$114,485 Vol.
No

Pete Hegseth
$156,483 Vol.
No

Doug Burgum
$145,164 Vol.
No

Howard Lutnick
$142,348 Vol.
No

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$55,069 Vol.
No

Sean Duffy
$101,115 Vol.
No

Linda McMahon
$52,725 Vol.
No

Kristi Noem
$299,942 Vol.
No

Susie Wiles
$66,208 Vol.
No

Russell T. Vought
$81,913 Vol.
No

Jamieson Greer
$96,863 Vol.
No

Stephen Miran
$107,487 Vol.
Yes

Rules

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Ended: Dec 31

Stephen Miran 100.0%

J.D. Vance <1%

Scott Bessent <1%

Pam Bondi <1%

$3,208,268 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

J.D. Vance

$110,819 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$61,829 Vol.

Pam Bondi

$450,324 Vol.

Brooke Rollins

$45,287 Vol.

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$131,650 Vol.

Scott Turner

$137,970 Vol.

Chris Wright

$49,351 Vol.

Doug Collins

$134,704 Vol.

Lee Zeldin

$85,056 Vol.

Tulsi Gabbard

$82,861 Vol.

John Ratcliffe

$144,150 Vol.

Mike Waltz

$67,347 Vol.

Kelly Loeffler

$77,870 Vol.

None before 2027

$209,248 Vol.

Marco Rubio

$114,485 Vol.

Pete Hegseth

$156,483 Vol.

Doug Burgum

$145,164 Vol.

Howard Lutnick

$142,348 Vol.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$55,069 Vol.

Sean Duffy

$101,115 Vol.

Linda McMahon

$52,725 Vol.

Kristi Noem

$299,942 Vol.

Susie Wiles

$66,208 Vol.

Russell T. Vought

$81,913 Vol.

Jamieson Greer

$96,863 Vol.

Stephen Miran

$107,487 Vol.

Yes

About

Volume

$3,208,268

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Kristi Noem out by March 31?

10%

U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?

10%

Beware of external links.