Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 68.1% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by its blistering release cadence in early 2026—including Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which excel in coding, planning, and agentic tasks like Terminal-Bench 2.0 (65.4% score). These models dominate professional benchmarks and power features such as Cowork agents, persistent memory, and Claude Code, fueling enterprise adoption and app store supremacy. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 22% with March updates boosting context retention and Workspace integrations, keeping it competitive. OpenAI's 6.5% reflects model retirements (e.g., GPT-5.1) without fresh flagships, while others lag amid compute and research gaps; watch Q2 announcements for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 67.9%
Google 22%
OpenAI 7%
DeepSeek 1.7%
$2,958,354 Vol.
$2,958,354 Vol.

Anthropic
68%

22%

OpenAI
7%

DeepSeek
2%

xAI
2%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 67.9%
Google 22%
OpenAI 7%
DeepSeek 1.7%
$2,958,354 Vol.
$2,958,354 Vol.

Anthropic
68%

22%

OpenAI
7%

DeepSeek
2%

xAI
2%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 68.1% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by its blistering release cadence in early 2026—including Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which excel in coding, planning, and agentic tasks like Terminal-Bench 2.0 (65.4% score). These models dominate professional benchmarks and power features such as Cowork agents, persistent memory, and Claude Code, fueling enterprise adoption and app store supremacy. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 22% with March updates boosting context retention and Workspace integrations, keeping it competitive. OpenAI's 6.5% reflects model retirements (e.g., GPT-5.1) without fresh flagships, while others lag amid compute and research gaps; watch Q2 announcements for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions