Market icon
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Market icon
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1,265,218 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,265,218 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$42,156 Vol.

4%

↑ 5.25%

$135,436 Vol.

6%

↑ 5.0%

$9,683 Vol.

3%

↑ 4.75%

$63,840 Vol.

4%

↑ 4.5%

$9,804 Vol.

5%

↑ 4.25%

$21,642 Vol.

10%

↓ 3.25%

$52,573 Vol.

66%

↓ 3.0%

$214,644 Vol.

35%

↓ 2.75%

$250,221 Vol.

20%

↓ 2.5%

$171,269 Vol.

15%

↓ 2.25%

$21,904 Vol.

10%

↓ 2.0%

$14,496 Vol.

13%

↓ 1.75%

$5,943 Vol.

9%

↓ 1.5%

$24,836 Vol.

12%

↓ 1.25%

$893 Vol.

26%

↓ 1.0%

$0 Vol.

10%

↓ 0.75%

$386 Vol.

9%

↓ 0.5%

$89,217 Vol.

6%

↓ 0.25%

$117,158 Vol.

7%

↓ 0%

$10,116 Vol.

6%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability that the Federal Reserve's target range lower bound will reach 3.25% or below before December 31, 2026, with 100% certainty already achieved at 3.50% and 40% odds for 3.00%, reflecting the March 17-18 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year. The updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut for 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch's 95%+ probability of an April hold and muted easing path through year-end. Steady labor markets and anchored inflation expectations limit aggressive cuts, while low single-digit odds on hikes above 4.25% underscore caution; key catalysts include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability that the Federal Reserve's target range lower bound will reach 3.25% or below before December 31, 2026, with 100% certainty already achieved at 3.50% and 40% odds for 3.00%, reflecting the March 17-18 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year. The updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut for 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch's 95%+ probability of an April hold and muted easing path through year-end. Steady labor markets and anchored inflation expectations limit aggressive cuts, while low single-digit odds on hikes above 4.25% underscore caution; key catalysts include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability that the Federal Reserve's target range lower bound will reach 3.25% or below before December 31, 2026, with 100% certainty already achieved at 3.50% and 40% odds for 3.00%, reflecting the March 17-18 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year. The updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut for 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch's 95%+ probability of an April hold and muted easing path through year-end. Steady labor markets and anchored inflation expectations limit aggressive cuts, while low single-digit odds on hikes above 4.25% underscore caution; key catalysts include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability that the Federal Reserve's target range lower bound will reach 3.25% or below before December 31, 2026, with 100% certainty already achieved at 3.50% and 40% odds for 3.00%, reflecting the March 17-18 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid February CPI inflation holding at 2.4% year-over-year. The updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut for 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch's 95%+ probability of an April hold and muted easing path through year-end. Steady labor markets and anchored inflation expectations limit aggressive cuts, while low single-digit odds on hikes above 4.25% underscore caution; key catalysts include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by " ↓ 3.25%" at 66%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is " ↓ 3.25%" at 66%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.