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Geopolitics·Ukraine

U.S. nuclear test by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Ukraine

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$610,984 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$610,984 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$0 Vol.

2%

September 30, 2026

$122 Vol.

8%

December 31, 2026

$643 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, amid non-ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and ongoing stockpile stewardship via computer simulations at Department of Energy labs. Trader consensus weighs President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing against March 24, 2026, statements from a senior State Department official indicating assessments continue for potential underground tests at Nevada sites, without a final decision. U.S. accusations of Chinese covert testing and Russian violations fuel debate, countered by congressional bills like the No Nuclear Testing Act and technical hurdles requiring months of preparation. No tests have occurred in the past 30 days; future NNSA announcements or diplomatic escalations could alter dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$610,984
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, amid non-ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and ongoing stockpile stewardship via computer simulations at Department of Energy labs. Trader consensus weighs President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing against March 24, 2026, statements from a senior State Department official indicating assessments continue for potential underground tests at Nevada sites, without a final decision. U.S. accusations of Chinese covert testing and Russian violations fuel debate, countered by congressional bills like the No Nuclear Testing Act and technical hurdles requiring months of preparation. No tests have occurred in the past 30 days; future NNSA announcements or diplomatic escalations could alter dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$610,984
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. nuclear test by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 12%, followed by "September 30, 2026" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 12¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. nuclear test by...?" has generated $611K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. nuclear test by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "U.S. nuclear test by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 12%, meaning the market assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30, 2026" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "U.S. nuclear test by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.