Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

US next strikes Iran on...?

Name: US next strikes Iran on...?
Start: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Ended: Jan 31

Feb 28

Jun 30

No strike by January 31 100.0%

January 12 <1%

January 13 <1%

January 14 <1%

$28,513,815 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026

January 12
$174,396 Vol.
No

January 13
$352,575 Vol.
No

January 14
$1,357,455 Vol.
No

January 15
$721,329 Vol.
No

January 16
$851,047 Vol.
No

January 17
$509,296 Vol.
No

January 18
$569,914 Vol.
No

January 19
$1,188,559 Vol.
No

January 20
$1,015,021 Vol.
No

January 21
$1,260,514 Vol.
No

January 22
$1,295,692 Vol.
No

January 23
$2,137,803 Vol.
No

January 24
$1,460,613 Vol.
No

January 25
$1,551,909 Vol.
No

January 26
$1,541,870 Vol.
No

January 27
$1,514,603 Vol.
No

January 28
$1,311,211 Vol.
No

January 29
$1,637,680 Vol.
No

January 30
$1,729,141 Vol.
No

January 31
$2,620,126 Vol.
No

No strike by January 31
$3,713,061 Vol.
Yes

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

US next strikes Iran on...?

Ended: Jan 31

Feb 28

Jun 30

No strike by January 31 100.0%

January 12 <1%

January 13 <1%

January 14 <1%

$28,513,815 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026

January 12

$174,396 Vol.

January 13

$352,575 Vol.

January 14

$1,357,455 Vol.

January 15

$721,329 Vol.

January 16

$851,047 Vol.

January 17

$509,296 Vol.

January 18

$569,914 Vol.

January 19

$1,188,559 Vol.

January 20

$1,015,021 Vol.

January 21

$1,260,514 Vol.

January 22

$1,295,692 Vol.

January 23

$2,137,803 Vol.

January 24

$1,460,613 Vol.

January 25

$1,551,909 Vol.

January 26

$1,541,870 Vol.

January 27

$1,514,603 Vol.

January 28

$1,311,211 Vol.

January 29

$1,637,680 Vol.

January 30

$1,729,141 Vol.

January 31

$2,620,126 Vol.

No strike by January 31

$3,713,061 Vol.

Yes

About

Volume

$28,513,815

End Date

Jan 31, 2026

Created At

Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Beware of external links.

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 12
$174,396 Vol.
No

January 13
$352,575 Vol.
No

January 14
$1,357,455 Vol.
No

January 15
$721,329 Vol.
No

January 16
$851,047 Vol.
No

January 17
$509,296 Vol.
No

January 18
$569,914 Vol.
No

January 19
$1,188,559 Vol.
No

January 20
$1,015,021 Vol.
No

January 21
$1,260,514 Vol.
No

January 22
$1,295,692 Vol.
No

January 23
$2,137,803 Vol.
No

January 24
$1,460,613 Vol.
No

January 25
$1,551,909 Vol.
No

January 26
$1,541,870 Vol.
No

January 27
$1,514,603 Vol.
No

January 28
$1,311,211 Vol.
No

January 29
$1,637,680 Vol.
No

January 30
$1,729,141 Vol.
No

January 31
$2,620,126 Vol.
No

No strike by January 31
$3,713,061 Vol.
Yes

Market Context