Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon
World·Israel

US next strikes Iran on...?

Market icon
World·Israel

US next strikes Iran on...?

Ended: Jan 31

Ended: Jan 31

No strike by January 31 100.0%

January 12 <1%

January 13 <1%

January 14 <1%

Polymarket

$28,513,815 Vol.

No strike by January 31 100.0%

January 12 <1%

January 13 <1%

January 14 <1%

Polymarket

$28,513,815 Vol.

January 12

$174,396 Vol.

No

January 13

$352,575 Vol.

No

January 14

$1,357,455 Vol.

No

January 15

$721,329 Vol.

No

January 16

$851,047 Vol.

No

January 17

$509,296 Vol.

No

January 18

$569,914 Vol.

No

January 19

$1,188,559 Vol.

No

January 20

$1,015,021 Vol.

No

January 21

$1,260,514 Vol.

No

January 22

$1,295,692 Vol.

No

January 23

$2,137,803 Vol.

No

January 24

$1,460,613 Vol.

No

January 25

$1,551,909 Vol.

No

January 26

$1,541,870 Vol.

No

January 27

$1,514,603 Vol.

No

January 28

$1,311,211 Vol.

No

January 29

$1,637,680 Vol.

No

January 30

$1,729,141 Vol.

No

January 31

$2,620,126 Vol.

No

No strike by January 31

$3,713,061 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$28,513,815
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Related

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Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

49%
US
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Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

58%
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Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?

86%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US next strikes Iran on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No strike by January 31" at 100%, followed by "January 12" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US next strikes Iran on...?" has generated $28.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US next strikes Iran on...?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US next strikes Iran on...?" is "No strike by January 31" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "January 12" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US next strikes Iran on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.