Skip to main content

Market icon
Politics·Iran Ceasefire

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

Market icon
Politics·Iran Ceasefire

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

$941,946 Vol.

Apr 21, 2026
Polymarket

$941,946 Vol.

Polymarket

April 21

$282,342 Vol.

19%

On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required. Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice. Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, mediated by Pakistan to halt direct hostilities amid war, with negotiations slated for Islamabad and conditions tied to Strait of Hormuz access. Recent tensions escalated after Iran reopened the strait on April 17—prompting Trump's optimistic signals of an imminent deal—only to reimpose restrictions on April 18, accusing the US blockade of violating truce terms; Trump countered that the blockade persists until a permanent agreement and Iran cannot "blackmail" via shipping controls. Trader consensus prices a low 20% implied probability on Trump officially announcing the ceasefire broken by April 21, reflecting no formal violation statement yet despite mutual recriminations, with potential for extension talks or de-escalation via diplomacy. The market awaits any public US declaration of breach by either side before the deadline.

On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.

Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.

Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$941,946
End Date
Apr 21, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required. Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice. Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required. Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice. Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, mediated by Pakistan to halt direct hostilities amid war, with negotiations slated for Islamabad and conditions tied to Strait of Hormuz access. Recent tensions escalated after Iran reopened the strait on April 17—prompting Trump's optimistic signals of an imminent deal—only to reimpose restrictions on April 18, accusing the US blockade of violating truce terms; Trump countered that the blockade persists until a permanent agreement and Iran cannot "blackmail" via shipping controls. Trader consensus prices a low 20% implied probability on Trump officially announcing the ceasefire broken by April 21, reflecting no formal violation statement yet despite mutual recriminations, with potential for extension talks or de-escalation via diplomacy. The market awaits any public US declaration of breach by either side before the deadline.

On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.

Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.

Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$941,946
End Date
Apr 21, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required. Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice. Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

Related

Market icon

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

22%
Market icon

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

78%
Market icon

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

80%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 21" at 19%, followed by "April 14" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?" has generated $941.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?" is "April 21" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 14" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.