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Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

Market icon

Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$135,504 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$135,504 Vol.

The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD).

An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked.

Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$135,504
End Date
Feb 5, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:19 AM ET
The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD). An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked. Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD).

An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked.

Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$135,504
End Date
Feb 5, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:19 AM ET
The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD). An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked. Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?" has generated $135.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.